Page - 22 - in options, Volume winter 2017/2018

africa 22 regional focus www.iiasa.ac.atoptions ◼ winter 2017/18 Deforestation poses a serious threat to the Congo Basin—the area surrounding the Congo River, which spans six central African nations. This area is home to some of the most unique wildlife on the planet, including mountain gorillas, which make their home in the densely populated conflict zone of the Albertina rift region in the Democratic Republic of Congo. In a recent study, Aline Mosnier and her coauthors found that because of higher population density in the forested areas of many of these countries, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo, continued deforestation pressure threatens the natural habitat of these gorillas. Additionally, tens In September 2015, the UN adopted Agenda 2030, which aims, among other goals, to “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all by 2030.” This measure was adopted, in part, to bring electricity to the 1.1 billion people globally that are currently without access to it. In order to determine how best to achieve this in the areas of the globe with least access to electricity (primarily sub-Saharan Africa), researchers have developed an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET). This tool estimates, analyzes, and visualizes the most cost-effective electrification options. In a study published in the journal Environmental Research Letters, Holger Rogner and coauthors confirmed that installation, operation, and maintenance costs of electrification are directly linked to geographic conditions and changing demand. Unlike traditional planning tools, which emphasize expanding a central power grid, electrification analyses require spatially specific information, such as renewable energy flows by geographic grid, distance from population centers to nearest grids, and existing or needed infrastructure. According to the study, using this new tool will allow planners and policymakers to consider different grid options, which will contribute considerably to achieving universal access. “Important information about regions lacking electricity is largely absent in national energy statistics and databases,” explains Rogner, a guest researcher at IIASA. “Geospatial information systems, which utilize modern remote sensing techniques, datasets derived from satellite imagery, and digitization of a plethora of existing maps, have begun to fill this gap.” JS of thousands of other species of plants and animals that make up the region’s rich biodiversity are at risk. More study is needed, Mosnier points out, because the information used to track the deforestation has been largely unreliable. Historical and current land use is very uncertain in the region due to satellite images obscured by heavy cloud cover, small field size, mixed-agroforestry production system and unverified statistics. “Congo Basin countries encompass a large rainforest area which has been relatively well preserved until now,” explains Mosnier, a researcher with the IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program. “However, our results show that while population is expected to grow by 36 million over the next decade, 9 million hectares of forests would be cut, mostly to meet higher local food needs. Agriculture intensification appears to be the best strategy to reduce future deforestation and enhance economic development.” JS Further info Mentis Di, Howells M, Rogner H, Korkovelos A, Arderne C, Zepeda E, Siyal S, Taliotis C, et al. (2017). Lighting the World: the first application of an open source, spatial electrification tool (OnSSET) on Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Research Letters 12 (8): e085003. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14778]. Holger Rogner rogner@iiasa.ac.at Lighting the world through open source electricity Reversing deforestation in the Congo Basin Further info Mosnier A, Tonga P, Mant R, Pirker J, Pietsch S, Bocqueho G, Bodin B, Gillet P, et al. (2017). CoForTips Congo basin forests: tipping points for biodiversity conservation and resilience. Final Report (La modélisation des changements d’utilisation des terres dans les pays d’Afrique Centrale 2000-2030). IIASA Contract No. 13-102, Laxenburg, Austria. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14652] Aline Mosnier mosnier@iiasa.ac.at