Page - 8 - in options, Volume winter 2018/2019

Written by: Ansa Heyl Finding a balance between agriculture and nature Research shows that fully enforcing existing legislation in Brazil could bring about a compromise between agriculture and the environment. In 1965, Brazil passed a set of laws to protect the country’s native vegetation and regulate land use. The “Forest Code” carried the promise of stopping illegal deforestation and continuing Brazil’s trajectory toward an ever-decreasing loss of forest areas. The legislation was, however, never fully enforced, with many saying that its regulations were too restrictive. In addition, despite a significant decrease in deforestation observed between 2004 and 2012, which is largely attributed to other factors, the legislation failed to curb illegal deforestation. This led to a revision of the law in 2012. In recent years, Brazil has nonetheless seen a sharp increase in the loss of forestland. This is ascribed to internal pressure for the loosening of environmental regulations due to economic and political turmoil in the country, an increased need for land, and a lack of incentives to encourage farmers to stop deforesting. A team of researchers from several international institutions led by IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program researcher Aline Soterroni and Fernando Ramos from Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, set out to understand the implications of fully enforcing the Forest Code on both the environment and the Brazilian agriculture sector to 2050. Their work is timely, as it could reassert the need for continuous efforts in the enforcement of the Forest Code, while showing that it will not prevent growth in the agricultural sector. “Deforestation is responsible for a major share of Brazil's greenhouse gas emissions and has historically been linked to cattle ranching and crop production. Between 1990 and 2016, the land use sector in Brazil emitted more than 50 billion tons of CO2, which is equivalent to one year of global emissions. Understanding the nexus between agricultural expansion and land-use change is key for Brazil to meet its ambitious goals of emissions reduction set during the 2015 Paris climate talks,” explains Soterroni. Although a paper on the team’s work was only published earlier this year, the research has been ongoing for some time and has already informed policy. Specifically, the results were applied in the land use, land-use change, and forestry component of the Brazilian Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) presented in the Paris Agreement. According to José Domingos Miguez, director of Brazil's Department of Environmental Evaluation in the country's Ministry of the Environment and a leading climate negotiator, land-use emissions are a central part of Brazil’s climate commitments. “Being able to point to the scientific basis for our climate commitment helps build trust with other nations, and creates a transparent environment for climate negotiations in the future. The Brazilian Government has benefited from the cooperation between IIASA and other leading Brazilian public institutions. The results of the study were quite informative and have provided science-based evidence that has contributed to Brazil’s INDCs,” says Miguez. Further info: Soterroni A, Mosnier A, Carvalho AXY, Câmara G, Obersteiner M, Andrade PR, Souza RC, Brock R, et al. (2018). Future environmental and agricultural impacts of Brazil's Forest Code. Environmental Research Letters [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15345] Aline Soterroni: soterr@iiasa.ac.at © Pcphotography69 | Dreamstime Science into policy www.iiasa.ac.at8 Options Winter 2018/19