Page - 13 - in options, Volume winter 2018/2019

Nurturing cooperation, preservation, and prosperity in the Arctic The vast 15 million square kilometer territory surrounding the North Pole commonly referred to as “the Arctic” may seem to be remote and intangible, but what happens there affects us all he Arctic region is undergoing a massive and rapid transformation, and many of the changes have significant effects in the rest of the world. The most prominent of these include global warming, rising sea levels, and the more extreme weather events experienced across the world in recent years. In addition, industrial extraction, air pollution, globalization, migration, and food and water insecurity, along with widening socioeconomic gaps in the region, may amplify existing risks, complicating decision making and increasing uncertainty. While all of this paints a bleak picture for the future of this highly vulnerable and important region, some of the changes taking place could also bring about new opportunities for Arctic states, provided they are planned for and managed responsibly and sustainably. A holistic and collaborative approach The IIASA Arctic Futures Initiative (AFI) aims to provide decision makers in the region with options that balance environmental protection, economic prosperity, and societal wellbeing, and cuts across the expertise of all IIASA programs. The initiative’s objective is to provide a holistic assessment of the Arctic region that integrates research and policy, while taking into account the interests of both industry and society. Over the years, IIASA projects related to the Arctic have covered a wide variety of topics spanning boreal forests and sustainable fishing practices in Arctic waters, to the modeling of future demographic trends and the development of collective responses to reducing air pollution. The initiative is also cooperating with the Arctic Circle, the largest open democratic platform and network of international dialogue and cooperation on the future of the Arctic, thus combining the expertise of IIASA with the convening power of the Arctic Circle. The future of Arctic populations The Arctic region encompasses the Arctic Ocean and parts of Canada, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden, and the USA, and even though it is home to a relatively small number of people, they are one of the driving forces in active Arctic transformation. Understanding the population dynamics associated with these changes will be crucial to finding solutions in the future. W R I T T E N BY: A N SA H EY L www.iiasa.ac.at 13OptionsWinter 2018/19