Page - 17 - in options, Volume winter 2018/2019

Broad use The LED scenario was not only used in the preparation of the IPCC Special Report, but also in the development of Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, a major report by “The World in 2050” – an IIASA-led initiative aiming to provide a science-based, integrative approach to address all 17 SDGs. This report was launched at the UN High Level Political Forum in New York in July. The report set out six key transformations to enable the world to meet the SDGs in a manageable way. The paper describing the LED scenario generated much media interest and was discussed in the most recent paper by Amory Lovins, a leading figure in energy research who first developed the concept of low- demand driven “soft energy” paths in the 1970s. There has also been interest from NGOs such as Greenpeace. Available technologies The answer to rapidly reducing energy demand is a people-centered approach, encouraging the fast uptake of technologies and practices that can reduce energy demand. “There are two famous pictures, one showing the Manhattan Easter Day Parade in 1900, and one showing the parade in 1913. In the first photograph, there are only horses, and in the second, there are only cars,” says Grubler. “This shows how fast behavioral change can happen.” Large-scale infrastructure however, cannot change quickly. The LED scenario therefore relies on “granularity” – smaller-scale technologies and practices that do not rely on large investments or broad government policy change. The focus on the small and the available means that options like carbon capture and storage, geoengineering, or fusion energy, are out. In, are end- use options such as shared mobility, including on-demand and Uber-like vehicle sharing, which in one simulation for Lisbon, reduced vehicle numbers by 97%. Improving energy efficiency in buildings could reduce energy demand by 75% by 2050. Diet changes away from red meat for example, reduce emissions, water, and land demand from agriculture. Making use of the digital economy, multi-function smartphones, and younger generations’ preference for accessing services rather than owning goods (for instance streaming video) will also reduce the expected vast growth in energy demand to just 15% by 2050. An interesting research question encourages collaboration What is surprising is that the process to develop the LED scenario took just three months. “The reason for this is that somehow it resonated. People wanted to contribute,” says Grubler. “What this highlights is that you can get things done quickly and informally if it is an interesting research question that attracts the interest of your colleagues, creating a good, collaborative spirit.” Developing the LED scenario has been a people-centered endeavor in more than one way. People-centered in that the solutions focus on personal choices, and people-centered in the collaboration and common purpose of the researchers. Further info: Grubler A, Wilson C, Bento N, Boza-Kiss B, Krey V, McCollum D, Rao ND, Riahi K, et al (2018). "A Low Energy Demand Scenario for Meeting the 1.5°C Target and Sustainable Development Goals without Negative Emission Technologies." Nature Energy. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/ eprint/15301/] www.iiasa.ac.at/leddb www.iiasa.ac.at/IPCC- Special-Reports www.iiasa.ac.at/iamc Arnulf Grubler: gruebler@iiasa.ac.at Charlie Wilson: wilsonch@iiasa.ac.at Keywan Riahi: riahi@iiasa.ac.at commons such as climate change). And often the government is not motivated to protect the global good, perhaps because the time horizon of politicians is too short, or perhaps because the government is financially corrupt and therefore not interested in the true wellbeing of the population. These are all reasons why good governance and global cooperation are vital to achieving sustainable development. Transformations to sustainable developmentThe transformations to sustainable development imply deep structural changes, profound reforms of institutions, shifting mental maps and norms, changing patterns of human behavior, widespread awareness raising and mobilization, the adoption of a complex adaptive systems approach to sustainability issues, and unprecedented problem solving. As transformative change is needed, countries around the world require transformative governance. In view of the complexity and breadth of the changes occur- ring, and those to be expected, it is essential that we begin an effort to move beyond the sectoral and fragmented approach much sustainability research has followed thus far. Rather than investigate the role of water, or food, or energy, or even the wa- ter-food-energy nexus, we should design an approach that tru- ly integrates all possible domains affected, focuses on tradeoffs and co-benefits and generally takes a holistic perspective that is at the core of 2030 Agenda. Another synergetic approach of the 2030 Agenda strives to harness science, technology, and inno- vation (STI) to accelerate progress. The holistic approach im- plies that the full complexity of the dynamics involved in each domain of social, social-environmental, and social-environ- mental-technological interaction – from the basic values and world view of individual societies and cultures, to their ways of interacting, their institutions, their governance, and so forth – will play out and impact on every aspect of present and future societies. To move in that direction (at least for the moment as we are not able to deal with the full complexity of the total systems involved), we have selected to focus on the following six exemplary transformations that capture much of the global, regional, and local dynamics and thus encompass major drivers of future changes: • Human capacity and demography • Consumption and production• Decarbonization and energy• Food, biosphere, and water • Smart cities• Digital revolution Arguably, the six transformations are necessary to achieve the SDGs by 2030 and to 2050 and beyond. Each transformation will require Herculean governance efforts and imply deep societal, cultural, and normative dynamics of change that we analyze in Chapter 4. The six transformations are not intended to be a new clustering of the 17 SDGs nor to be a ‘reduced form’ of the SDGs and their 169 targets, but rather to describe systemic and integrative changes that are related to all SDGs as illustrated in Figure 2. Furthermore, they are central to the six SDGs reviewed at 2018 HLPF (SDGs 6, 7, 11, 12, and 15 as well as progress on 17). Arguably, they are not merely interlinked and interdependent with all SDGs, but also at the center of the great transformation toward sustainability and fundamental in ‘turning the tide’ of change. Figure 2. TWI2030 focuses on six transformations that capture much of the glo- bal, regional, and local dynamics and encompass major drivers of future chan- ges: i) Human capacity and demography; ii) Consumption and production; iii) Decarbonization and energy; iv) Food, biosphere and water; v) Smart cities; and vi) Digital revolution. Together they give peoples-centered perspective: building local, national and global societies and economies which secure wealth crea- tion, poverty reduction, fair distribution and inclusiveness necessary for human prosperity. They are necessary and potentially sufficient to achieve the SDGs if addressed holistically in unison. Source: TWI2050.Why these six transformations?Foremost, the six exemplary transformations give a people cen- tered perspective: building local, national and global societies and economies which secure wealth creation, poverty reduc- tion, fair distribution and inclusiveness are necessary for human prosperity in any society and any region of the world. While these objectives may be pursued differently in different con- texts, there are some domains of action which appear to be uni- versal including: i) institutions to enable and improve human capacities and capabilities, demography that includes secondary and not just primary education, adequate access to health care, fair labor markets, universal rule of law and means for mana- ging aging societies; ii) essential and strategic infrastructure of any local, national, global economy and society such as energy, food systems, cities, settlements and mobility systems; iii) pro- duction and consumption systems where deep transformations need to take place to create wealth and ensure a good work-life balance, aiming at leaving no one behind and iv) STI that are essential for further progress toward achieving the SDGs. This is the paradox as STI has, in the past, created many negative externalities like transgression of planetary boundaries, but also indispensable for the transformation 12 Decarbonization & energyEnergy access, efficiency, electrification, decent services Consumption & productionResource use, circular economy, sufficiency, pollution Digital revolutionArtificial intelligence, big data, biotech, nanotech, autonomous systems Smart citiesDecent housing, mobility, sustainable infrastructure, pollution Human capacity & demographyEducation, health, ageing, labor markets, gender, inequalities SDGs: ProsperitySocial InclusionSustainability Food, biosphere, & waterSustainable intensification, biodiversity, forests, oceans, healthy diets, nutrients Synthesis Transform tions to Achiev the Sustainabl Developme Goals Repor pr par d by The World 2050 init i tive www.iiasa.ac.at 17OptionsWinter 2018/19