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J A national forest inventory and integrated forest monitoring should be put in place. J Policymakers should have the opportunity to exchange experiences with countries that also have large areas of forests growing in dry and semi- dry conditions. sustainability Article VulnerabilityofUkrainianForests toClimateChange AnatolyShvidenko1,*, IgorBuksha2,SvitlanaKrakovska3 andPetroLakyda4 1 International Institute forAppliedSystemsAnalysis,A-2361Laxenburg,Austria 2 G.M.VysotskyiUkrainianResearchInstituteofForestryandAgroforestry,Pushkinskastr., 86, 61024Kharkiv,Ukraine;buksha@uriffm.org.ua 3 UkrainianHydrometeorological Institute,Naukyprospect37,03028Kyiv,Ukraine; svitlanakrakovska@gmail.com 4 InstituteofForestryandLandscape-ParkManagement,NationalUniversityofLifeandEnvironmental SciencesofUkraine,GeroivOboronyStr. 15,03028Kyiv,Ukraine; lakyda@nubip.edu.ua * Correspondence: shvidenk@iiasa.ac.at;Tel.:+43-2236-807497 Received: 8May2017;Accepted: 27 June2017;Published: 30 June2017 Abstract:UkraineisacountryoftheMid-Latitudeecotone—atransitionzonebetweenforestzoneand forestlessdry lands.Availabilityofwaterdefinesdistributionof thecountry’s forestsanddecreases theirproductivity towards the south. Climate changegenerates aparticular threat forUkrainian forestsandstabilityofagroforestry landscapes. Thispaperconsiders the impactsofexpectedclimate changeonvulnerabilityofUkrainianforestsusingensemblesofglobalandregionalclimaticmodels (RCM)basedonScenariosB1,A2,A1BoftheIntergovernmentalPanelforClimateChange,anda“dry andwarm”scenarioA1B+T−P(increasingtemperatureanddecreasingprecipitation). Thespatially explicit assessmentwas provided byRCM for theWMOstandard period (1961–1990), “recent” (1991–2010)andthree futureperiods: 2011–2030, 2031–2050and2081–2100. Forest-climatemodel byVorobjovandmodelofamplitudeofflora’s tolerance toclimatechangebyDidukh,aswellasa numberofspecializedclimatic indicators,wereused in theassessment.Differentapproaches leadto ratherconsistentconclusions.Waterstress is themajor limitation factorofdistributionandresilience offlatlandUkrainianforests.WithinScenarioA1B, theareawithunsuitablegrowthconditions for major forest formingspecieswill substantially increasebyendof thecenturyoccupyingmajorpart ofUkraine. ScenarioA1B+T−Pprojects evenamoredramaticdeclineof the country’s forests. It is expected that the boundary of conditions that are favorable for forestswill shift to north and northwest, andforestsof thexericbeltwillbe themostvulnerable.Consistentpoliciesofadaptation andmitigationmightreduceclimate-inducedrisks forUkrainianforests. Keywords:Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state anddistribution of forestsover21stcentury;Mid-Latitudeecotone 1. Introduction During lastcenturies, temperate forestsof theNorthernHemisphere facedgravethreats [1]. In EasternEurope, initially itwas tiedwiththehuman-inducedlanduse-landcoverchangefollowing deforestationfor increasingareas foragricultureandoverexploitation[2].However, starting fromthe secondhalfof the20thcentury, climatechangehasbroughtnewthreatscausedbyhotterdroughtsof historicallyunprecedentedseverity,accelerationofnaturaldisturbances,andworseningenvironment conditions due to air pollution, soil and water contamination [1]. This has led to widespread increasingmortality over the extra-tropical zones of theNorthernHemisphere [3], basically as a resultofweatherextremesandcombinationofdirectandindirect impactsofdisturbances [4,5]. The biggest threat for temperate forests isobservedintheMid-Latitudeecotone—atransitionxericbelt betweentheforestzoneandsouthernforestless territorieswhereclimatearidity is themajordriver, Sustainability2017,9, 1152;doi:10.3390/su9071152 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability Robert J. Zomer, Antonio Trabucco,Oliver vanStraaten andDeborahA.Bossio IWMI is a FutureHarvest Center supportedby theCGIAR AGlobalAnalysisof the HydrologicDimensionsofClimate ChangeMitigationthrough Afforestation/Reforestation 101 International WaterManagement I n s t i t u t e Keywords:Ukrainian forests; climate change; xeric belt; predictions of state anddistribution of forestsover21stcentury;Mid-Latitudeecotone 1. Introduction During lastcenturies, temperate forestsof theNorthernHemisphere facedgravethreats [1]. In EasternEurope, initially itwas tiedwiththehuman-inducedlanduse-landcoverchangefollowing deforestationfor increasingareas foragricultureandoverexploitation[2].However, starting fromthe secondhalfof the20thcentury, climatechangehasbroughtnewthreatscausedbyhotterdroughtsof historicallyunprecedentedseverity,accelerationofnaturaldisturbances,andworseningenvironment conditions due to air pollution, soil and water contamination [1]. This has led to widespread increasingmortality over the extra-tropical zones of theNorthernHemisphere [3], basically as a resultofweatherextremesandcombinationofdirectandindirect impactsofdisturbances [4,5]. The biggest threat for temperate forests isobservedintheMid-Latitudeecotone—atransitionxericbelt betweentheforestzoneandsouthernforestless territorieswhereclimatearidity is themajordriver, Sustainability2017,9, 1152;doi:10.3390/su9071152 www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability IIASA POLICY BRIEF #18 JULY 2018 © P akh nyush chy | shutterstock Ensuring a sustainable future for forests: The case of Ukraine Research shows that large parts of forests in the mid-latitude region, including in Ukraine, are under serious threat of being obliterated by the end of the century unless urgent adaptive action is taken. J The mid-latitude region contains half of the world’s population, and has been intensively exploited for agriculture. J This region includes the mid-latitude ecotone (MLE)–a transition zone from forest to the more arid steppe lands, and as climate change progresses, forests will be pushed further and further back. J Along with providing wood products and habitats for wildlife, these forests help to stabilize the land and prevent further soil degradation–a key factor for the region. J In Ukraine, used here as a case study for countries in the region, research by IIASA and Ukrainian partners shows that rising temperatures and lack of water could obliterate a major part of the country’s forests by the end of the century unless urgent adaptive action is taken. J The development of a transition strategy to adaptive sustainable forest management for the country’s forest sector is a task of national and international importance–particularly for the MLE. J It is recommended that national and regional programs for forest protection, particularly against wildfire and pest outbreaks, should be launched. J Forest managers should aim to create forests containing trees of different ages and a mix of species, as well as increase the amount of drought tolerant species. Seedbanks of indigenous tree and shrub species should also be created to conserve the existing gene pool. J Landscape specific systems of shelterbelts and other forest stabilization elements should be developed to prevent soil erosion and degradation. J A national forest inventory and integrated forest monitoring should be put in place. J Policymakers should have the opportunity to exchange experiences with countries that also have large areas of forests growing in dry and semi- dry conditions. publications have resulted from collaborations between IIASA and researchers at Ukrainian institutions 288I n 1994, Ukraine was at a turning point: the government was undergoing rapid change after declaring independence from the Soviet Union, and the country elected a new president and parliament. In the same year, the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (NASU) joined IIASA as a National Member Organization (NMO). With a commitment to systems analysis research, Ukraine embraced its transition to sustainable social, economic, and environmental betterment. Move forward to 2018, when NASU is also celebrating its 100th anniversary, and there have been 25 years of productive collaborations between IIASA and Ukrainian systems analysts. Much of the IIASA-Ukraine relationship is owed to Borys Yevhenovych Paton, NASU president and Victor Mikhailovich Glushkov, director of the Institute of Cybernetics, who facilitated the creation of the Committee of Systems Analysis at NASU. They and their colleagues were key to the systems analysis focus at NASU, as well as the decision to join IIASA as an NMO. Building economic growth and sustainability, together The partnership between IIASA and NASU has benefitted from the contributions of Ukraine’s most promising scientists. Over the past quarter of a century, Ukrainian and IIASA researchers have worked together to study energy, water, land-use, socioeconomic systems, the sustainable revival of the agricultural industry, and the country’s dwindling forests. Such collaborations center around the adaptation of the institute’s advanced methods in systems analysis to identify long-lasting solutions to challenges that affect multiple sectors in Ukraine. A current research project with NASU, “Integrated modeling of food, energy, and water management for sustainable social, economic, and environmental development”, incorporates the country’s specific management policies and IIASA global resource models. This allows both interregional and international trends to be factored into decisions about how to jointly handle resources, industry, and society. The project is a partnership between IIASA and seven leading institutes of NASU, collaborating with networks of national and international organizations, universities, advisors, and policymakers. Other collaborations have tackled energy and disaster risk management. As the Ukrainian government develops a policy to increase its share of renewable energy to over 13% by 2030, IIASA has been working with the academy to develop models for energy systems planning. A model for catastrophic hazards combines natural, agricultural, financial, and socioeconomic systems in the face of financial and natural disasters like the recession of the late 2000s and the disastrous floods that cost the country more than US$800 million in 2008. Collaboration however, goes beyond modeling into broad implementation. The ClimaEast project, which ran from 2012 to 2016, resulted in actionable recommendations for an adaptive sustainable forest management strategy in Ukraine, as detailed in IIASA policy brief #18. Likewise, the project “Reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Uncertainties” that ran from 2010 to 2014, resulted in the first fully verified carbon account for Ukrainian forests from 1990 to 2010 and produced a 30-year forecast for use in decision-making on managing GHG emissions. Four Ukrainian researchers, who were former participants in the Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP), received an award by decree of the Ukrainian president for achievements in science, for their book on the project. An extended analysis of the impacts of climate change on national forests was published by NASU and IIASA in 2018. The people behind the research Achievements like these, and scientific progress in general, are a collective effort, and the people responsible are equally worth celebrating alongside their projects. Working with a team of IIASA and NASU collaborators including Paton 25 years of Ukraine membership at IIASA Written by: Sandra Ortellado visits to Ukraine by a researcher from IIASA 80 on longstanding collaborations, NASU is looking forward to furthering its relationship with IIASA to conduct truly integrated multidisciplinary research addressing problems of common interest for Ukraine, IIASA, and the world, that require robust solutions that cannot be solved by traditional approaches Anatoly Zagorodny IIASA Council member for Ukraine Building www.iiasa.ac.at18 Options Winter 2018/19