Page - 20 - in options, Volume winter 2019

In the 1980s, many African countries were seeing the first signs of fertility decline. In the 1990s and early 2000s, some sub-Saharan African countries however experienced a leveling- off of this trend. According to IIASA research, a slowdown in fertility decline in sub-Saharan Africa was partially caused by disruptions in women’s education in the 1980s. “The stalls in fertility decline have been a puzzle to researchers for many years, since Africa was expected to undergo a ‘demographic transition’ where socioeconomic development leads first to reduced death rates, and after some lag, to reduced birth rates,” says IIASA researcher Endale Kebede, who led the study. This study provides strong evidence in support of women’s education being a key factor linked to falling fertility rates, as well as further support for policies that encourage and support education for women. “Our study was a cohort-wise analysis, meaning that we followed women by birth-year to understand their entire birth histories and the factors that contributed,” explains Kebede. “We found that cohorts who were affected by the educational discontinuities in the 1980s tend to have a higher level of fertility. This is due to the direct effect of education on fertility and the high vulnerability of the poorly educated cohorts to period specific shocks.” IIASA World Population Program Director and Wittgenstein Center Founding Director Wolfgang Lutz says that the study marks an important step in understanding and projecting future population trends in Africa. South Africa is facing the challenge of fueling economic development, while meeting its growing energy demand, and defining ambitious targets for the decarbonization of the country’s energy system to meet its nationally determined contributions under the 2015 Paris Agreement. An IIASA study evaluated shale gas exploitation as a potential solution to meet South Africa’s energy demand and mitigate its fast-rising greenhouse gas emissions. Accessing this untapped resource would however require industrial-scale shale gas “fracking” – a technique that enables natural gas production from previously uneconomic shale resources. Despite benefits like reducing local air pollution compared to coal, shale gas fracking has many negative social and environmental impacts including increased risk of earthquakes, water pollution, a reduced water table, and methane leakage that contributes directly to global warming. The authors found that shale gas extraction costs must be below US$3 per gigajoule for this energy source to become a significant part of the fuel mix. This is well below current cost estimates. Whether low-cost shale gas replaces coal or low-carbon renewables depends on the stringency of climate change policy. Counter- intuitively, the impact of an ambitious policy is weakened by cheap natural gas. “Shale gas is ‘fool’s gold’ in the quest for sustainable development,” says study coauthor Daniel Huppmann, a researcher in the IIASA Energy Program. “Given its negative side effects, pushing strongly for zero-carbon renewable energy is a more prudent policy for developing countries like South Africa.” Is shale gas a viable solution for South Africa’s energy challenge? A F R I C A Women’s education influence population trends in Africa Regional impacts Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15085 Endale Kebede: kebede@iiasa.ac.at Daniel Huppmann: huppmann@iiasa.ac.at Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15733 Uganda Ethiopia Nigeria 1990 2010 2000 Cameroon Tanzania Cote d'Ivorie Kenya Ghana Zimbabwe By Luiza Toledo By Luiza Toledo 20 Options www.iiasa.ac.atWinter 2019/20