Page - 11 - in options, Volume winter 2020

LIFE IN LOCKDOWN Almost all countries reacted to the rapid rise in COVID- infections by employing measures to contain or delay the spread of the virus. While scenes of empty city squares and deserted streets became commonplace, concern over the economic consequences of drastic lockdown measures soon became the subject of criticism in both political and public debate. This prompted IIASA researcher Tamás Krisztin and colleagues to look into the effectiveness of lockdown measures and to examine how COVID-19 spreads regionally and between countries. “Our results show that cross-country transmission processes, specifically via international flight connections, played a particularly important role in the early stages of the virus’ spread. It appears that governments, who took early action to reduce cross- border air passenger traffic, did in fact do the right thing to prevent the spread of infection. The policies introduced seem to have played a particular role in reducing COVID-19 cases, flattening the curve, relieving stress on the healthcare system and, ultimately, saving lives,” Krisztin explains. Despite the strict measures put in place all over the world, loss of life has been a substantial part of the pandemic. To show the potential cost of human lives lost, IIASA researchers also looked into the potential effects of mortality associated with COVID-19 on life expectancy. The results indicate that at 10% prevalence, the loss in period life expectancy is likely to be more than one year in high life-expectancy countries, while at 50% it would translate into three to nine years of life lost in such regions. While life expectancy cannot directly be used as an indicator to evaluate governments’ response to the pandemic as mortality from the first wave of infections depends on several other factors beyond government responses alone, the researchers note that it does give an indication of whether prevention measures are worth maintaining or not. While the decline in life expectancy will be short-term and will likely return to previous levels once the pandemic is over, the indicator provides quantifiable information to policymakers regarding the human cost of the COVID-19 pandemic. “The scenarios we explored can give policy-relevant information on what could potentially happen to period life expectancy under different levels of prevalence, which vary with public health strategies to reduce and prevent the spread of COVID-19. If the virus spreads widely in the population, for instance, in the absence of any lockdowns and physical distancing measures, this could result in a notable short-term decline in period life expectancy in many regions of the world,” explains Deputy World Population Program Director, Raya Muttarak. IIASA researchers and colleagues also examined the age and gender dimensions of COVID-infections and found that confirmed COVID-19 cases are highly © Adam Islaam | IIASA 11Optionswww.iiasa.ac.at Winter 2020