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EACH DEGREE OF GLOBAL WARMING MAY LEAD TO A ROUGHLY 50% INCREASE IN THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE DISPLACED Reinhard Mechler patterns are influenced, enables more realistic population projections that account for the impacts of climate change on demographic processes. This could in turn help to design policies that target vulnerable population subgroups," Muttarak explains. IIASA research has shown the importance of planning ahead to reduce displacement risk and preparing to help displaced people. A study published in the journal Science, shows how risk science can provide actionable insight into key aspects of displacement from the probability of a disaster occurring, all the way to its socioeconomic impacts and costs using upgraded displacement data. Innovative modeling can also help to address the drivers of displacement and migration through new agent-based models representing how people respond to calamities. “Advanced disaster and climate modeling is enabling increasingly realistic assessments of risk. Knowing the likely human and financial burdens of displacement, for instance, can inform judgements on how to reduce vulnerability, such as through better early warning and contingency planning,” says Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, a senior researcher at IIASA. “Changing vulnerability and exposure are major factors in future climate-related displacement risk and recent modeling suggests that each degree of global warming may lead to a roughly 50% increase in the number of people displaced if no further action is taken. Much of this displacement will happen in vulnerable communities. IIASA is working with key players in the humanitarian sector, like the Red Cross and Red Crescent movement, to guide people-centered action for avoiding and better managing displacement,” adds IIASA researcher Reinhard Mechler, who leads the IIASA Systemic Risk and Resilience Research Group. PUT PEOPLE AT THE CENTER OF SOLUTIONS The Earth Commission, an international group comprising renowned scientists from around the world, has outlined a challenging and fundamental core framework for a “safe and just” future for people and our planet. Put simply, ‘safe’ means not transgressing the limits of the planet’s systems, while ‘just’ implies a fair sharing of risk, responsibilities, and resources for everyone that is also in line with the aims of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The aim is for this framework to help quantify the conditions for the planet’s systems to avoid dangerous tipping points. “People are central to the limits we face and the targets we hope to achieve. Our decisions are driving global change and determining our future. IIASA is supporting the Earth Commission through assessment and modeling of the safe and just development pathways for people and the planet by integrating complex interlinkages and feedbacks among Earth and human systems,” explains IIASA Emeritus Research Scholar Nebojsa Nakicenovic, who co-leads one of the commission’s working groups. The fight against catastrophic climate change is arguably one of the most pressing challenges we are facing. To keep global warming below 1.5°C, greenhouse gas emissions should reach their peak as soon as possible and the whole world should become climate neutral by 2050. Achieving this goal will require, among other things, a full transformation of the energy sector. Access to reliable and affordable energy services plays a crucial role in both developed and developing societies – it is integral to all sectors from medicine and education, to agriculture, infrastructure, communications, and digital-technology. Unfortunately, the burning of fossil fuels to feed our insatiable need for energy also happens to be responsible for two thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions. The urgent need to transform the energy sector to reduce its contribution to climate change is clear. Earlier this year, the European Commission’s Group of Chief Scientific Advisors delivered a Scientific Opinion on a systemic approach to the energy transition in Europe in which they provide policy recommendations on how 14 Options Winter 2021 www.iiasa.ac.at