Page - 12 - in Clean Water Using Solar and Wind - Outside the Power Grid

12 Clean Water Using Solar and Wind: Outside the Power Grid power in total global electricity generation has decreased for ten years in a row, to 10.5% in 2015, yet “this still corresponds to nearly a third of the world’s low carbon electricity production.” This means that renewables (including hydro, solar and wind) generate more than twice as much electricity (24.5%) as nuclear power and the gap is growing rapidly. It is predicted that by 2022 renewables will be generating three times as much electricity as nuclear reactors. The International Energy Agency (IEA – not to be confused with the IAEA) in 2017 released a five-year global forecast for renewables, predicting capacity growth of 43% (920 GW) by 2022. The latest forecast is a “significant upwards revision” from last year’s forecast, largely driven by expected solar power growth in China and India (IEA, 2017b). Non-hydro renewable electricity generation has grown eightfold over the past decade and will probably surpass nuclear by 2022, or shortly thereafter. Globally, investments in fossil fuels will decrease to less than half of today’s around 3.4 ⋅ 1012 USD/year to 1.5 ⋅ 1012 USD/year in 2050, while non-fossil energy expenditures show the reverse trend, increasing fivefold from around 0.5 ⋅ 1012 USD/year today to 2.7 ⋅ 1012 USD/year in 2050 (DNV GL, 2017). Shifting investments to renewables, where the investment is up-front capital expenditures (capex), implies a shift from an energy system with a 60/40 split between operating expenditures (opex) and capex to one with the inverse split of 40% opex and 60% capex. In dollar terms, global opex will decline from about 2 ⋅ 1012 USD/ year in 2015 to 1.5 ⋅ 1012 USD/year in 2050. Conversely, capital expenditure will increase almost 50% from 1.8 ⋅ 1012 USD/year in 2015 to 2.6 ⋅ 1012 USD/year in 2050. These figures do not include the cost of grids and energy efficiency investments (ibid.) Eliminating the use of oil and gas will cut about 13% from the world’s energy budget because mining, transporting and refining those fuels are all energy-intensive activities (Solutions Project, a US-based non-profit organisation). The greater efficiency of electric motors versus internal combustion engines could reduce global energy demand by another 23%. 1.4.5 Electric power cost development Some recent reports emphasise that the energy field has undergone a massive change in less than a decade. Obviously we need tools to Downloaded from https://iwaponline.com/ebooks/book-pdf/520710/wio9781780409443.pdf by IWA Publishing user