Page - 71 - in Water, Energy, and Environment - A Primer

obtainingoil fromCanada is preferable to obtainingoil from the PersianGulfandothercountriesandis in theUSnationalsecurity and economic interest, and that pipeline construction today is under better regulation and is safer than ever before. Inhisglobal climate change speechatGeorgetownUniversity on 25 June 2013 President Obama, prior to his denial of the Keystone XL Pipeline project, seemed to hint that he would approve the pipeline, arguing that ‘Allowing the Keystone pipeline to be built requires a finding that doing sowould be in our nation’s interest. And our national interest will be served only if this project does not significantly exacerbate the problem of carbon pollution. The net effects of the pipeline’s impact on our climate will be absolutely critical to determining whether this project is allowed togo forward.’ The use of the words ‘significantly exacerbate’ seemed significant in that it will be hard to argue that the carbon emissions from mining the Alberta tar sands will add significantly to current global CO2 emissions. Add they will, and add to oil availability they will as well, but by themselves andintermsofimpactonglobalclimatechange,notsignificantly. Thus, if one assumed that the pipeline would be carefully regulated (andwith strict enforcement of those regulations), that the Canadian tar sands will be mined regardless, that the new pipeline path is less risky for theOgallala, and that the pipeline will reduce US needs for other oil imports, approval of the pipeline was a safe bet to make. This would recognize that current US need for liquid petroleum fuels to support transportation is significant andwill continue for awhile. What changed, and led to the decision in 2015by theObama Administration to deny the project’s construction permit, was probably several-fold: the market price of oil (which had dropped to approximately half of what it was in 2013), President Obama’s apparent decision to make leadership on global climate change issues an important part of his legacy, and the fact thatCanada had a new federal government thatwas Fossil fuels 71