Seite - 67 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
Bild der Seite - 67 -
Text der Seite - 67 -
3 ObservedandProjected Impacts fromExtremeWeatherEvents… 67
Thischapterbuildsonpreviousmajorreviewsofchangesinpastextremeweather
eventsandtheirimpacts,includingtherelevantsummariescontainedinIPCCreports,
suchas theSpecialReportonManaging theRisksofExtremeEventsandDisasters
toAdvanceClimateChangeAdaptation (IPCCSREX; IPCC2012), aswell as the
FifthAssessmentReport(IPCC2013,2014),andextendsthesewithrecentpublished
studies. In addition, it provides a discussion of expectations of future losses under
projected climate change. The discussion is complementary to other chapters that
focus on the attribution of anthropogenic climate change (chapter by James et al.
2018), anddecisionmaking in the context ofLoss andDamage (chapter byLopez
et al. 2018) aswell as on riskmanagement in the chapter byBotzen et al. (2018).
The following topicsarecovered
• Observedchanges inweather extremesand their relationwithanthropogenic cli-
matechange;
• Observedchangesinimpactsfromextremeweather,andtheirrelationtochanging
weather extremes;
• Observedchanges in exposure andvulnerability, leading to altered impacts from
extremeweather;
• Possiblechanges in thefuture in termsofextremeweather impactsandlossesand
damages,basedonprojections fromquantitative impact studies.
3.2 ObservedChanges inWeatherExtremes
The occurrence ofweather extremes has been studied extensively, both in natural
hazard research for thepurposeofhazardprobability estimationanddesignofpro-
tection, aswell as inclimatechange research.At thesame time,uncertainties in the
attribution of extremes (such aswindstorms) to anthropogenic climate change are
largerthanforslow-onsetprocesses(suchasannualaveragetemperaturechangeand
sea-level rise) (IPCC2013). This is partly because of the rare nature of extremes,
which are often analysed at return periods of 100 years ormore, and also because
theyoftenoccuratspatialscalesthataresmallerthanslow-onsetevents.Forinstance,
tropical cyclonesoccurover smaller areas thanmajor heat-waveordrought events.
However,overrecentyearstheattentiontoextremeweathereventshasincreased,and
possibilities toanalyseandmodel theoccurrenceand intensityof theseeventshave
improved. For a number of extremeweather events, there is considerable evidence
that thesehaveincreasedinfrequencyandforsomethatanthropogenicemissionsof
greenhousegasesareamajorcauseof this increase.
Table 3.1 provides an overview of past changes in weather extremes and the
role of anthropogenic forcing, as assessed by the IPCC in the SREX (IPCC2012)
and theWorking Group I volume of the Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2013).
From this table it canbe concluded that the detectionof changes and attribution to
anthropogenic emissions has been established for extremes related to temperature
andsea-level rise.
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Titel
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Untertitel
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Autoren
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Verlag
- Springer Open
- Datum
- 2019
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Abmessungen
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Seiten
- 580
- Schlagwörter
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Kategorien
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima