Seite - 76 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

76 L.M.Bouwer 3.4 ProjectionsofFutureExtremeWeatherLosses As a stylised case, Fig. 3.2 provides an illustration of howpast risk fromextreme weatherhas increased,andhowthis riskcanbereducedoravoided throughdisaster risk reduction (protectionandprevention).Therewill always remaina residual risk (seealsochapterbySchinkoetal.2018),whichcannotbereducedinacost-efficient way, i.e. the costs of eliminating the risk are considered higher than incurring the costs.However, current riskhas increasedby increasing exposure, andpossibly by anthropogenic climate change. Part or all of this risk is related to the Loss and Damage debate, depending onwhether or not residual impacts are considered to be included.Future riskwill increase further due to anthropogenic climate change, leadingtoanincreasingamountoflossesanddamages,notaddressedbydisasterrisk reduction and adaptation.However, as vulnerability is likely to be further reduced (seealsoevidencediscussedinSect.3.3), theshareavoidedbydisasterriskreduction and adaptationwill also increase. The losses anddamages after adaptation include unavoidable losses and damages, potentially including the residual risks that will remain. Variousstudiesalsoprojectquantifiedfuturelossesfromextremeweather,mostly for risk assessment purposes in the context of vulnerability and adaptation studies at nationalor international level, andalso forplanninganddesignpurposesat local level.These studies are assessedbyseveral authors, including IPCC(e.g.Handmer etal.2012;Arentetal.2014).Overall, thesestudiesrecognisethatchangingweather hazards have a role, driven by anthropogenic climate change as major driver of Fig.3.2 Past, current and future risk fromextremeweather events, and the relation toLoss and Damage