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76 L.M.Bouwer
3.4 ProjectionsofFutureExtremeWeatherLosses
As a stylised case, Fig. 3.2 provides an illustration of howpast risk fromextreme
weatherhas increased,andhowthis riskcanbereducedoravoided throughdisaster
risk reduction (protectionandprevention).Therewill always remaina residual risk
(seealsochapterbySchinkoetal.2018),whichcannotbereducedinacost-efficient
way, i.e. the costs of eliminating the risk are considered higher than incurring the
costs.However, current riskhas increasedby increasing exposure, andpossibly by
anthropogenic climate change. Part or all of this risk is related to the Loss and
Damage debate, depending onwhether or not residual impacts are considered to
be included.Future riskwill increase further due to anthropogenic climate change,
leadingtoanincreasingamountoflossesanddamages,notaddressedbydisasterrisk
reduction and adaptation.However, as vulnerability is likely to be further reduced
(seealsoevidencediscussedinSect.3.3), theshareavoidedbydisasterriskreduction
and adaptationwill also increase. The losses anddamages after adaptation include
unavoidable losses and damages, potentially including the residual risks that will
remain.
Variousstudiesalsoprojectquantifiedfuturelossesfromextremeweather,mostly
for risk assessment purposes in the context of vulnerability and adaptation studies
at nationalor international level, andalso forplanninganddesignpurposesat local
level.These studies are assessedbyseveral authors, including IPCC(e.g.Handmer
etal.2012;Arentetal.2014).Overall, thesestudiesrecognisethatchangingweather
hazards have a role, driven by anthropogenic climate change as major driver of
Fig.3.2 Past, current and future risk fromextremeweather events, and the relation toLoss and
Damage
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Titel
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Untertitel
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Autoren
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Verlag
- Springer Open
- Datum
- 2019
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Abmessungen
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Seiten
- 580
- Schlagwörter
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Kategorien
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima