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3 ObservedandProjected Impacts fromExtremeWeatherEvents… 77
risk.Thehazards that are studied include tropical andextra-tropical cyclones, river
flooding, coastalflooding, aswell as small scalephenomenasuchashailstorms.
Exposureandvulnerabilityarealsoconsideredasimportantdriversoffuturerisks.
Manybutnot all of these studiesalso integrateprojectionsof increasingpopulation
andwealthorcapitalatriskinthequantitativeestimatesoffuturerisk.Acomparison
of these estimates shows that for tropical cyclones and extra-tropical cyclones, the
effects of future increases in exposure aremuch larger than from increasinghazard
frequencyasaconsequenceofanthropogenicclimatechange(Bouwer2013).Some
recent studies have analysed these signals together in a single analysis, such as
Crompton et al. (2011). They show that for tropical cyclones in the USA, it will
take at least until the end of this century before the effects from anthropogenic
climate change can be disentangled from the loss record.Muis et al. (2016) show
for Indonesia that coastal and riverflood risk in the futurewill be largelydrivenby
increasingexposure.Preston (2013) shows forvariousweatherhazards in theUSA
that exposure potentially will have amajor impact on losses until the year 2050.
Straderet al. (2017) showfor tornadorisk, that increasingexpansionofurbanareas
in theUSoutweighs theeffectsof increasingsevereweatheroccurrence.
Only very few studies have analysed the effects of a further decline in vulnera-
bility, as a result of increasing risk reductionandadaptionefforts, in comparison to
projectedfutureclimatechange.Jongmanetal. (2015)showsthatwhenconsidering
vulnerability reduction (e.g., throughadaptationanddisaster risk reduction), future
absolutelossesfromriverfloodingintermsoflossoflifeandmonetaryimpactscould
be substantially reduced, at the global scale thanwithout adaptation, and under an
optimistic scenario even declining, compared to today’s risks. Also,Mechler and
Bouwer (2015) show for Bangladesh that increases in risks are potentially lower
whendynamicvulnerability is considered.
Theseprojectionstudies imply that forLossandDamage, itwill remaindifficult
whichelementsoftheactuallossesfromextremeweatherareattributedtogreenhouse
gas emissions;first of all, increasingexposure could still play adominant role.But
in addition, successful vulnerability reduction could increasingly lead to a lowered
paceof risk increases, compared to thepast.Changesareobserved in the frequency
ofseveralweatherextremes,andanthropogenicclimatechangeisanimportantdriver
for several of these.Also, losses, includingmonetary losses, fromextremeweather
eventshaveincreased,ascanbeseenfromseveralobservationalrecords.Therecords
of lossesdiscussedaboveare focusedonmonetary losses,while severalother types
ofimpacts, includingnon-monetiseddamagesandirreversibleimpactsfromextreme
weather, areunderrepresented, complicating theassessmentof lossesanddamages.
Studies into drivers of losses fromextremeweather show that increasing exposure
hasbeenthemost importantdriver, throughincreasingpopulationandcapitalassets.
Anthropogenic climate change is currently not an important driver for changes in
lossesfromeventsrelatedtoextremewind,rainfall,andflooding,exceptperhapsfor
convectiveweather events (thunderstorms and hail). Other extremeweather types
(suchasextremeheat)havenotbeenaddressed in thischapter, andmonetary losses
arerarelyassessedforextremetemperatures. It isknownthatanthropogenicclimate
changeisincreasingheatwavefrequency,andmortalityandmorbidityhavebeenhigh
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Titel
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Untertitel
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Autoren
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Verlag
- Springer Open
- Datum
- 2019
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Abmessungen
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Seiten
- 580
- Schlagwörter
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Kategorien
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima