Seite - 78 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

78 L.M.Bouwer in recent events.Residual losses (after risk reductionandadaptation) fromextreme weatherhavenotyetbeenattributed toanthropogenic climatechange.For theLoss andDamagedebate, this impliesthatoverall it iscurrentlydifficult toattributelosses togreenhousegasemissions. Anthropogenicclimatechangeisprojectedtobecomemoreimportantfordriving futureweather losses upward.However, drivers of exposure and especially vulner- ability reduction will interplay. Exposure will continue to lead to risk increases. Vulnerability on the other handmay to be further reduced if disaster risk reductio- nandadaptationistakenforward.Asmodellingstudiesshowthiswouldreducelosses anddamages fromextremeweather at the global scale. In themost optimistic sce- nariowith high adaptation assumed, it could even reduce the burden fromextreme weather. Yet, at national scales and particularly for developing countries there is ample evidence of increasing risk,which calls for a significant upgrade of climate riskmanagement efforts. References ArentDJ,TolRSJ,FaustE,Hella JP,KumarS,StrzepekK,TóthFL,YanD(2014)Keyeconomic sectorsandservices. In:FieldCB,BarrosVR,DokkenDJ,MachKJ,MastrandreaMD,BilirTE, ChatterjeeM,EbiKL,EstradaYO,GenovaRC,GirmaB,KisselES,LevyAN,MacCrackenS, MastrandreaPR,WhiteLL(eds)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.Part A:globalandsectoralaspects.ContributionofworkinggroupII to thefifthassessment reportof the intergovernmentalpanelofclimatechange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,United KingdomandNewYork,NY,USA,pp659–708 BahinipatiCS,PatnaikU(2015)ThedamagesfromclimaticextremesinIndia:dodisaster-specific andgeneric adaptationmeasuresmatter?EnvironEconPolicyStud17:157–177 BahinipatiCS,VenkatachalamL(2016)Roleofclimate risksandsocio-economic factors in influ- encing the impact of climatic extremes: a normalisation study in the context ofOdisha, India. RegEnvironChange16(1):177–188 Barredo JI (2009) Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006. Nat Hazards Earth Syst Sci 9:97–104 Barredo JI (2010)No upward trend in normalisedwindstorm losses in Europe: 1970–2008. Nat HazardsEarthSystSci10:97–104 Barredo JI, SauriD,Carmen-LlasatMC(2012)Assessing trends in insured losses fromfloods in Spain1971–2008.NatHazardsEarthSystSci12:1723–1729 BoruffBJ,EasozJA,JonesSD,LandryHR,MitchemJD,CutterSL(2003)Tornadohazards in the UnitedStates.ClimateRes24:103–117 BotzenW,BouwerLM,Scussolini P,KuikO,HaasnootM,Lawrence J,Aerts JCJH (2018) Inte- grateddisasterriskmanagementandadaptation.In:MechlerR,BouwerL,SchinkoT,Surminski S,Linnerooth-BayerJ(eds)Lossanddamagefromclimatechange.Concepts,methodsandpolicy options.Springer,Cham,pp287–315 BouwerLM(2011a)Havedisaster losses increasedduetoanthropogenicclimatechange?BullAm MeteorSoc92(1):39–46 BouwerLM(2011b)Reply tocommentson“Havedisaster losses increaseddue toanthropogenic climatechange?”BullAmMeteorolSoc92(6):792–793 Bouwer LM (2013) Projections of future extremeweather losses under changes in climate and exposure.RiskAnal33(5):915–930