Seite - 96 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

96 T.Schinkoet al. Schinko (2016) that considers key contributions from these fields of research and synthesizes respective insights into a visual representation of, what we consider, constitutes the riskandpolicy space forLossandDamage. 4.3.1 TheLossandDamageRiskandOptionsSpace Synthesisingexisting literature, inparticularbuildingon IPCCassessments and the UNFCCC stocktake that led to defining the Paris ambition of 1.5 °C respectively 2 °Cof changeas theupperglobalwarming limit (UNFCCC2015b), the summary chart(Fig.4.6)showsstylisedpast,present,andfutureclimate-relatedrisklevelsand correspondingCRMportfolios foragivencommunityorcountry(hereagainshown via the example of the Small Island States, whose risk profile has been presented inFig. 4.2) facing severe climate risk today and expecting further increases in risk due to climate change (the socio-economic component is kept constant for ease of presentation, which does not affect our argumentation). In line with the three cornerstones presented above, the key foci are to (i) consider total climate-related risk incl. the adaptation deficit, (ii) include risk preference in terms of acceptable, tolerableand intolerable risk, (iii) consider riskof irreversible loss. Theoptions portfolio comprises actual andpotential cumulative action in terms ofCRM, implemented aspart of separate or synergistic efforts related toDRRand climateadaptation. It is important tonotehere thatwhileIPCC(2012)highlights the needtolookatalldriversofriskandtosynergisticallymanagethose,inthecontextof climate anthropogenic climate change is at the centre of interest. The IPCC(2012) has suggested that “Effective climate riskmanagement portfolios integrate sound riskanalysis, riskreduction,riskfinancing,responseandopportunitiesforlearning.” (seealsochapterbyLopezetal.2018;chapterbyBotzenetal.2018).Howcanthose concepts be further operationalised at scale?As one example, Box 4.1 presents a comprehensive CRM framework developed for the case of informing Indian state andnational-level policymakers,whichmayact as a blueprint for taking action on climate-related lossesanddamages. Comprehensive riskmanagement and policy can be broken down to comprise incremental (e.g., raising dikes), fundamental (e.g., floodplains instead of dikes) and transformative (e.g., voluntarymigration fromfloodplains) interventions (see alsoMechlerandSchinko2016).Accepting thisstylisedvisualisation(Fig.4.6), the options space forLoss andDamagemaybedeterminedas follows: (i)withclimate changeamplifyingrisk, there isa legitimatecase for internationalaction in theLoss andDamagetransformativeriskspacetopushriskdownfromintolerabletotolerable levels complementing the DRR and adaptation policy domains; (ii) the Loss and