Seite - 105 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

4 TheRiskandPolicySpace forLossandDamage… 105 absorb risk; these actions to be supported internationally would largely comprise of fundamental and transformative riskmanagement interventions. Particularly in amedium-longer term liability-based perspective,we emphasise consideration for liabilitiesattributable toclimatechange.Aswesuggest, theseconsiderationscanbe integrated into a policy-oriented framework, which identifies the policy space for LossandDamageascomposedofcurativeand transformativemeasures. Transformativemeasures exhibit substantial overlap with DRR and adaptation agendas,yetfocusonhigh-levelrisks.Thissetofmeasuresisseeingattention,mostly focussedonclimateinsurance(e.g. theG7Initiative;GIZ2015;Schäferetal.2018). Manyanalystsandadvocates,however,seeaneedforbroadeningthisdebatetowards comprehensiveCRM,so that riskpreventionandpreparedness arebetter integrated andlinkedwithriskfinancing.Thecurativeactionspaceislessclearlydefined,while heavilycontested.Beyondthecalls forcompensationforactual lossesanddamages, whicharecurrently ruledout in theParis agreement, the set-upofandsupport for a climatedisplacement facilityhasbeen in the spotlight andmayqualifyasanaction itemin this space. Common to both sets ofmeasures, and discussed as aworking element of the agenda, is a need for committing finance for the genuine implementation of the WIM. Such commitments to finance may have a prospective and transformative function in termsoffinancial support forCRM,encompassingfinancingforclimate insurancepremiumsubsidies, reservecapital and technical assistance.Thecurative function involves finance for dealing ex-postwith unavoided andunavoidable loss and damage, on top of mechanisms that deal with avoidable risk. An important aspect to emphasise is that our proposed principled approach, ideally to be linked to international commitments to support, can serve as a sort of “canary in the coal mine”where risks, costs and implicationsdetectednowandmodelled for later time horizonsat local to regional riskmanagement scalescanhelp to informtheultimate remit of theUNFCCC,which is to harness collective global action for “avoiding dangerous interferencewith theclimate system”(UnitedNations1992). There isanalyticalandmodellingexpertise thatcanbeemployedtoidentifyrisks ‘beyondadaptation’ and todefine theLossandDamage riskandoptions space.We argued that risk layering can be a valuable tool—at least formarket-based losses anddamages.Non-economic or non-market based impactsmay require alternative assessment tools.When taking a climate risk lens, probabilistic loss distributions are useful to provide information about thewhole risk spectrumbeyond expected or average losses only. The risk layering approach can also provide support for determiningany increase (ordecrease)of climate-related risks, anddisentangle the contributingdriversofrisk—hazard,exposureandvulnerability,whichhasimportant consequences for the prioritisation of instruments within the options space. It is important tonote, however, that disentanglinganthropogenic andnatural drivers of risk is still not conclusivelypossible. Our applicationof a risk analytical approach, comprising risk layeringand risk- basedprobabilisticmodellingtothecaseoffloodriskinBangladeshandattheglobal levelrepresentsamethodologicalapproachfordeterminingcountries’financialneeds for dealingwith intolerable risk layers.Notwithstanding the fact that our example