Seite - 128 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

128 R.A. Jameset al. Fig.5.2 A conceptual causal network illustrating multiple potential “causal chains” between anthropogenicchangesinGHGsandaerosols,climateandweather,andL&D.Thefigureisdesigned tobeillustrativerather thancomprehensive,showingtheinfluenceofhumanfactors(showningrey at thebottomof thefigure)onL&D, includingmonetary losses, fatalities,damageto infrastructure andecosystems, andnon-economic losses (NELs).Thearrowsare labelledwith the sectionof the chapterwhich dealswith scientific research relevant to that link in the network: importantly not all of the links are labelled, highlighting again that this chapter is not comprehensive, and there maybeotherfieldsof researchwhichcouldbe integrated intoL&Dresearchandpractice tobetter understandL&D observed trendsarecompared tomodelsimulationswithandwithoutcertaindrivers (includingGHGs, anthropogenic aerosols, solar variability, and volcanic aerosols) to test the relative importance of each forcing factor (see Fig. 5.3). These studies have demonstrated that anthropogenic activity has influenced globalwarming, and also regionalwarming on six continents, aswell as global changes in related vari- ables, such as atmosphericwater vapour. The global increase in sea level rise has alsobeenattributed toanthropogenicGHGs(Bindoff et al. 2013).Trendattribution can thereforeprovide relevant informationabout the influenceofclimatechangeon some “slow onset” events including sea level rise, and increasing temperatures. It is also possible to conduct trend attribution studies on long term trends in extreme weather events, for example the global increase in heavy precipitation events has beenattributed toanthropogenicemissions (Zhanget al. 2013). In the last10years,anewfieldofclimatechangeattributionresearchhasrapidly emerged,which focuses on single extremeweather events (Stott et al. 2016). It is now possible tomake statements about how anthropogenic emissions have influ- enced specific heatwaves, heavy rainfall events, wind storms, and droughts. Since