Seite - 227 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

9 The ImpactsofClimateChangeonEcosystemServices… 227 9.4 CaseStudy:Multi-annualDrought in theDrylands of theSahel While climate change impacts on ecosystem services are already highly localised, this applies evenmore to the resulting losses and damages to people and society. Differences between places in terms of culture, social organization, governance, development and adaptive capacity cause the local specificity of climate change impacts in human systems. This section uses aWestAfrican case study to further exploreconceptual linksbetweenclimatechangeandlossesanddamages toecosys- tem services, and consequently to humanwell-being. The following questions are explored: • What is theweather-related stressoranddoesclimatechangeplaya role? • Howdoes the stressoraffect ecosystemsand the services theyprovide? • Howdoes thechange inecosystemservicesaffecthumansystems? • What are adaptation options, and howeffective are these at avoiding losses and damages? • What is theevidenceon lossesanddamages? • What can be done in terms of better preparedness or adaptation to avoid future lossesanddamages? TheSahel and the semi-arid drylands of EastAfrica are emblematic of climate changevulnerability.The regionshave facedchallenges suchas cropand livestock losses, food insecurity,displacement,cultural losses including traditional livelihood systems,andconflict.Amajor factor in thesechallenges isclimatevariabilityexac- erbatedbyclimatechange.Incontrastwithotherpartsof theworld,mostagriculture inAfricaisrainfedandthereforecropsyieldsareextremelysensitivetoclimaticcon- ditions (Zaal et al. 2004). Inearly2015anestimated20.4millionpeoplewere food insecure as a result of ongoingdrought—mostly inNiger,Nigeria,Mali, andChad whereconflict andpovertycompoundfood insecurity (ReliefWeb2015).Anumber of climatic changes are occurring in the region. For one, it is becominghotter, and this is clearly consistent with climate change. Temperature increases varywidely within the region, up to asmuchas0.5 °Cper decade from1951 to thepresent (or 3.5°Ctotal) ina largepartofSudanandSouthSudan;andarealsohigh,0.2–0.4°C per decade, in large parts ofMauritania,Mali,Niger,Chad andUganda (Fig. 9.2). Recent studies suggest that in someAfrican regions the pace ofwarming ismore thandouble theglobalandtropicalaverage(CookandVizy2015;Engelbrechtetal. 2015).Higher temperatures increase evaporation from soil andwater surfaces and transpiration fromvegetation—aprocess knowncollectively as evapotranspiration. Therefore, even inplaceswhere rainfall increases, itmaynot be sufficient tooffset overallsoilmoistureloss,affectingprimaryproductivityandfoodproduction,which are supportingandprovisioningecosystemservices respectively. In thedrylandsofAfrica, there is high rainfall variability fromyear toyear, and even from decade to decade. Figure 9.3 shows the rainfall variation for the Sahel