Seite - 230 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

230 K.vanderGeest et al. Fig.9.5 ThedryingofLakeChad. SourceUNEP(2016) InotherpartsoftheSahel,rainfallrecoveryinrecentdecadeshasbroughtflooding because the rainfall arrives inmore intensecloudbursts rather than inamoreevenly distributedmanner (Giannini et al. 2013). In 2007, for example, rainfall extremes and consequent flooding inSenegal’s peanut basin led to loss of property and crop lossbecause farmersoftencultivate inandaroundnaturaldepressions (Fig.9.6). Research ineasternSenegalonhouseholdperceptionsoffloodanddrought indi- cate thatclimatevariabilitybringscrop, livestockandothereconomic losses (Miller et al. 2014).Over thedecadepreceding the survey, onaveragehouseholds reported experiencing 2.5–3 years of drought and 0.2–0.5 yearswith flooding, with higher incidenceinthenorththanthesouth.Itisunclearhowclimatechangemightinfluence theSahelinfuture,withsomeclimatechangeprojectionssuggestingtheremightbea shift towetterconditionswhileotherprojectionssuggestthatconditionswillbecome muchdrier (Druyan2011).Despite theuncertainty about thepotential influenceof human-inducedclimatechangeintheregion, thereisampleevidencetodemonstrate thevulnerability toclimate shocks, aswell aspotential shifts inclimate. AdaptationmeasuresimplementedintheSahelincludecrop-livestockintegration, soil fertilitymanagement,plantingofdrought-resistantcrops,waterharvesting,dug ponds for watering animals, livelihood diversification, and seasonal or permanent migration. A number of these methods have been practiced for generations and are the norm for semi-arid regions.However, in a changing climate such practices will have to be scaled up and newmethods developed, as adaption has not been sufficient to prevent losses.Newmethodsmay include breeding ofmore drought- resistantcrops,or innovationssuchas index-based insurance.For the latter,payouts toparticipatingfarmersandherdersarenotmadeonthebasisofactual lossesbuton thebasisofchanges in rainfallordrought indices, therebyreducing theoverheadof