Seite - 261 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

Chapter11 TheRoleof thePhysicalSciences inLoss andDamageDecision-Making AnaLopez,SwenjaSurminskiandOliviaSerdeczny Abstract This chapter reviews the implications of Loss andDamage (L&D) for decision-makingwith a special focus on the role of the physical sciences for deci- sion support. From thepoint of viewof climate science, thequestion regarding the estimationof losses anddamagesassociatedwithclimatechangecanbe thoughtof intermsoftwotemporalscales: thepresentandthefuture. Inbothcasestheaimisto establish the linksbetweenhuman-inducedchanges inclimateandclimatevariabil- ity, the probability of occurrence of extrememeteorological events (e.g., rainfall), and the resultinghazard that causes lossesanddamages (e.g.,flood).Wereviewthe approaches used to assess the hazard component of risk, with a special emphasis on identifying sources of uncertainty and the potential for providing robust infor- mation tosupportdecision-making.Wethendiscuss toolsandapproaches thathave been developed in the context of Climate ChangeAdaptation (CCA) to deal with uncertainty from climate science in order to avoid a ‘wait and see’ mentality for decision-making.Wearguethat thesecanbeappliedtosomepartsofL&Ddecision- making, in the sameway as suggested forCCA, since the challenges presented by theneed to reduceandmanageclimatechange lossesanddamagesarenotverydif- ferentfromtheonespresentedbytheneedtoadapt toclimatechangeandvariability. Howeveradditionalchallengesfordecision-makers,particularlyinthecontextofthe underlyingscience, areposedby thecompensationandburden-sharingcomponents ofL&Dforclimate impacts that arebeyondmitigationandadaptation’s reach. Keywords LossandDamage ·Climatedecision-making ·Uncertainty Climatechangeattribution A.Lopez (B) PhysicsDepartment andUniversityCollege,OxfordUniversity,Oxford,UK e-mail: ana_lopez@fastmail.uk S.Surminski GranthamResearch InstituteonClimateChangeand theEnvironment, LondonSchoolofEconomicsandPoliticalScience (LSE),London,UK O.Serdeczny ClimateAnalyticsGmbH,Berlin,Germany ©TheAuthor(s)2019 R.Mechler et al. (eds.),LossandDamage fromClimateChange,ClimateRisk Management,PolicyandGovernance,https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-72026-5_11 261