Seite - 279 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

11 TheRoleof thePhysicalSciences inLossandDamage… 279 References BellpratO,Doblas-ReyesF(2016)Unreliableclimatesimulationsoverestimateattributableriskof extremeweatherandclimateevents.GeophysResLett43:2158–2164.https://doi.org/10.1002/2 015gl067189 BenitoG, LangM,BarriendosM, LlasatMC, Francés F, Ouarda T,Varyl R, Thorndycraft VR, EnzelY,BardossyA,CoeurD,BobéeB (2004)Use of systematic, palaeoflood and historical data for the improvement of flood risk estimation. Review of scientificmethods. NatHazards 31:623–643.https://doi.org/10.1023/B:NHAZ.0000024895.48463.eb Bhave AG, Conway D, Dessai S, Stainsforth DA (2016) Barriers and opportunities for robust decisionmaking approaches to support climate change adaption in the developingworld.Clim RiskManagement14:1–10.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.09.004 BoothBBB,BernieD,McNeallD,HawkinsE,CaesarJ,BoultonC,FriedlingsteinP,SextonDMH (2013) Scenario andmodelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-drivenglobal climatemodels.EarthSysDyn4:95–108.https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4- 95-2013 BosSPM,PagellaT,KindtR,RussellAJM,LuedelingE (2015)Climate analogs for agricultural impact projection and adaptation—reliability test. FrontEnvironSci. https://doi.org/10.3389/fe nvs.2015.00065.Accessed30Jan2016 BotzenW,BouwerLM,Scussolini P,KuikO,HaasnootM,Lawrence J,Aerts JCJH (2018) Inte- grateddisasterriskmanagementandadaptation.In:MechlerR,BouwerL,SchinkoT,Surminski S,Linnerooth-BayerJ(eds)Lossanddamagefromclimatechange.Concepts,methodsandpolicy options.Springer,Cham,pp287–315 BouwerLM(2018)Observedandprojectedimpactsfromextremeweatherevents: implicationsfor loss anddamage. In:MechlerR,BouwerL, SchinkoT,Surminski S,Linnerooth-Bayer J (eds) Lossanddamage fromclimatechange.Concepts,methodsandpolicyoptions.Springer,Cham, pp63–82 Calliari E, Surminski S,Mysiak J (2018) The politics of (and behind) the UNFCCC’s loss and damagemechanism. In:Mechler R, Bouwer L, Schinko T, Surminski S, Linnerooth-Bayer J (eds) Loss and damage fromclimate change. Concepts,methods and policy options. Springer, Cham,pp155–178 DahindenF,FischerEM,KnuttiR(2017)Futurelocalclimateunlikecurrentlyobservedanywhere. EnvironResLett 12.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa75d7.Accessed20Jul2017 DankersR,ArnellNW,ClarkDB,FalloonPD,FeketeBM,GoslingSN,HeinkeJ,KimH,Masaki Y,SatohY,StackeT,WadaY,WisserD(2014)First lookatchanges infloodhazard in the inter- sectoral impactmodel intercomparisonproject ensemble.PNAS111 (9)3257–3261. https://doi. org/10.1073/pnas.1302078110 DeserC, PhillipsA,BourdetteV,TengH (2012a)Uncertainty in climate change projections: the roleof internalvariability.ClimDyn38:527–546 DeserC,KnuttiR,SolomonS,PhillipsAS(2012b)Communicationoftheroleofnaturalvariability in futureNorthAmericanclimate.NatClimChange2:775–779 Dessai S, HulmeM (2007) Assessing the robustness of adaptation decisions to climate change uncertainties:acasestudyonwater resourcesmanagement in theEastofEngland.GlobEnviron Change17(1):59–72 Dessai S, HulmeM, Lempert R, Jr Pielke (2009) Do we need better predictions to adapt to a changingclimate?Eos,TransAmGeophysUnion90(13):112–113.https://doi.org/10.1029/200 9EO130003 DittrichR,WrefordA,MoranD(2016)Asurveyofdecision-makingapproachesforclimatechange adaptation:Are robustmethods thewayforward?EcolEcon122:79–89 Fankhauser S, Ranger N, Colmer J (2013) An independent national adaptation programme for England. Policy brief. GranthamResearch Institute onClimate Change and the Environment, LondonSchoolofEconomics