Seite - 306 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

306 W.J.WouterBotzenet al. mentswhichrewardpolicyholderswhoelevatetheirhomewithlowerpremiums,like theNationalFloodInsuranceProgramintheUS(AertsandBotzen2011).Neverthe- less,mostnaturaldisaster insurancesystemsdonotchargerisk-basedpremiumsthat incentivise risk reduction.Hudsonetal. (2016)examinehowmuchadditionalflood damagemitigation can be achievedwhenGermanflood insurance companies start incentivisingriskreductionthroughchargingrisk-basedpremiums.Forthispurpose, theydevelopedanintegratedmodeloffloodriskinallmainriverbasins inGermany, the insurancesector, andhouseholdfloodpreparednessbehaviour.Theresults show that the premium incentives for risk reduction limit the expected risk increase that arise from climate changewith about 20%on average until the year 2040. These findings suggest that financially rewarding policyholders for taking riskmitigation measurescan improve theirpreparedness forflooding. Inadditiontofinancial incentivesprovidedbyinsurance,avarietyofothermech- anisms related to insurancesystemscanbeapplied to stimulatenaturaldisaster risk reduction. Insurance systems canbe combinedwith building code and zoning reg- ulations which limit vulnerability and exposure to natural hazards. For example, communities in theU.S.whichparticipate in theNationalFloodInsuranceProgram havetolimitnewconstructioninfloodwaysandnewbuildingshavetobeelevatedto theexpectedwater levelof thefloodthatoccursonaverageonce in100years (Aerts andBotzen2011). TheFrenchnatural disaster insurance system is connectedwith so-calledRiskPreventionPlanswhich include recommendedor compulsorybuild- ing code and zoning regulations tominimise flood damage (Poussin et al. 2013). Such regulations andstandards areuseful for settingminimumrequirementswhich arecost-effective forbuildings ina specifichazardzone. 12.6 Design ofAdaptation Pathwayswith Policy Makers—CaseStudiesNewZealand andBangladesh There are important challenges for deciding on climate-resilient investment and developmentpathwaysunder conditionsofuncertaintyandchange, suchasanthro- pogenicclimatechange.Inresponsetouncertainenvironmentalandsocio-economic change,decisionmakersareurgedtodevelopadaptiveplans.Anumberofapproaches that address uncertainty and changehavebeen takenup inpractice.These include, real options analysis (Dobes 2008; Ranger et al. 2010), robust decision making (Lempertetal.2003), iterativeriskmanagement(Haasnootetal.2011)andstrategic planningapproaches(Roggema2009).Oneof theseapproaches,DynamicAdaptive PathwaysPlanning (DAPP) (Haasnoot et al. 2013), has been used increasingly for implementingclimate-resilientpathways forwatermanagement, ofwhich thesteps are shown inFig.12.7.