Seite - 308 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

308 W.J.WouterBotzenet al. Fig.12.8 Exampleof an adaptationpathwaysmapanda scorecardpresenting the costs andben- efits of the nine alternative pathways presented in themap.An adaptive plan could exist of first implementingactionC,monitor thechangingcondition,andswitchtoactionDifthefutureunfolds according to the high-end scenario.ActionB is potentially a lock-in or regret option, as already after10yearsotheractionsareneeded. If this is thecasedependson theamountof the investment compared in relation to the timing of the tipping points and therefore functional lifetime of the action. SourceAdapted fromHaasnoot et al. (2013) InNewZealand,acombinationofseriousgaminganddevelopmentofadaptation pathwayswere used in a local government flood riskmanagement decision-setting (Box12.5;LawrenceandHaasnoot2017)(ongamingseealsothechapterbyMech- ler et al. 2018b). The Sustainable Delta Game (Valkering et al. 2012; http://delta game.deltares.nl) helped participants learn about decisionmaking under uncertain andchangingconditionsover time.Thegamehasalsobeenused todiscussclimate and climate change uncertainty (Van Pelt et al. 2014). The aimof the exercise on the Dynamic Adaptive Pathways Planning (DAPP) approach was to upgrade the existingflooddefencesystemto1in440yearsandmaintain that level (‘levelofser- vice’ (LoS)) over at least 100years.Thedischarge related to the440year standard increasingovertimeasaresultofclimatechange,withagreaterchangeinthehigher emissionscenarios.Asaresult, if theexistingsystemisupgradedonlytothecurrent 440yearstandardof2300cubicmeterpersecond(comics), itwill fail toprovidethe requiredLoSover100yearsandfurtheractionswillberequired.Theefficacyoffive optionswereevaluatedfortheirabilitytomaintaintheprotectionlevelover100years, using threeclimatechangescenarios, formeetingdevelopment/transport/recreation objectives, theeffectof landuseplanningmeasures,andcomparativecostsofstaged implementationofoptions.Eachoptionconsistedofaportfolioofmeasures,andfor eachportfoliothe‘adaptationtippingpoint’conditionswereassessedintermsofthe