Seite - 349 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

14 IntegratedAssessment for IdentifyingClimateFinanceNeeds… 349 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2020 20302040 205020602070208020902100 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 MENA SSA SASIA CHINA EASIA LACA (a) (b) Fig.14.3 Residualdamagesestimates for thecaseof a) lowdamages-highdiscount rate;b) high damages-lowdiscount rate (inbillion2005US) estimates are given inbillions ofUSD in2005prices).Damages are calculated for 12 regionsand foreverydecade from2020 to2100. 14.3.2 Results TheestimatesareshowninTables14.1and14.2.Table14.1gives residualdamages in the high-damage/low discount rate case and Table 14.2 does the same for the lowdamage/high discount rate case.As stated, in each case the figures are for the averages of the three IAMsmentioned above. The last column in the two tables gives the range of damages across the threemodels, reporting themaximum as a percentage of theminimum.3 Finally the last row of Table 14.1 shows howmuch damagesvarybetweenthehighandlowdamagecasesbyreportingthehighdamage as apercent of the lowdamage.The same informationon regional damages is also shown inFig.14.3. Thefigures showresidual damages tovary significantlyby region.Sinceweare interested in those damages that would need to be financed from a possible L&D facilitywe can focus on the following regions,where the countries belongmainly to the non-Annex I group:MENA,SSA,SASIA,China, EASIAandLACA.Total residual damages for these regions range from$116–435 billion in 2020, rising to $290–580 billion in 2030, $551–1,016 billion in 2040 and 1,132–1,741 billion in 2050. Thus, even in the lowdamages case the residual cost figures are substantial 3Therearefurthervariationsindamagestoconsiderforagivendiscountrateandagiventemperature profile.Thesearise fromthechoiceofkeyparametersof the IAMsandarediscussedfurther in the next section.