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14 IntegratedAssessment for IdentifyingClimateFinanceNeeds… 359
14.5.2 TimeHorizonandL&DEstimates
Withrespect to the timehorizon thefollowingpointsare relevant: IAMscanhelp to
provideanorderofmagnitudeestimatefortheresourcesthatwillbenecessarytomeet
lossesanddamagesestimates, but abottom-upsector-by-sector analysisof existing
andprojectedlosseswillbenecessary.Thechallengeistolinkthetwoapproaches.At
presentwehavetheIAManalysis thatdrawsonthebottom-updata inarathercrude
way. The current bottom-up analysis for sectors such as agriculture, health etc. is
moredetailedbutdoesnotgenerally takeaccountof theoveralleconomicprofilefor
the country or region. Uncertainty regarding future damages from climate change
is very large in the long-term (2050–2100), especially if some tipping-points are
crossed,butmoremoderateinthenear(2020–2030)andmedium-term(2030–2050).
Thus, the longer the timehorizonbeingconsidered thegreater theuncertaintyabout
the possible level of Loss and Damage. Some of these uncertainties are reduced
significantly whenmitigation is undertaken but also through adaptation. Previous
sections show that low emissionmitigation pathways can reduce future damages
remarkably and their uncertainty range, and that adaptationmeasures can reduce
residualdamages.
InviewofthesefactsoneofthefirstobjectivesintheneartermisforaL&Dfinance
mechanism to get establishedwith the sufficient amount ofmonetary resources to
cover thecurrent existing lossesdirectlyattributed toclimatechange (not tonatural
variability). In themediumand the long term, it is important that thecurrentdesign
offinancingmechanism isflexible enough inorder to scale up thefinancing if and
whennecessary.
14.6 Conclusions
The aim of this chapter has been to see howmuch we can learn about possible
losses anddamages- andfinanceneededbyemploying economic IAMs,which are
key analytical tools at the heart of economic analysis of the damages caused by
climatechangeandofeconomicallyoptimalresponsestothesedamages.Weinterpret
modelled residualdamagesasunavoidedL&D.
The current state of knowledge about damages hasmany gaps andwe are not
by anymeans at a stage where the results of thesemodels can form the basis of
financial packagesofLoss andDamage.On theother hand, a few results standout
as relatively robust and credible, andprovide a useful contribution to theLoss and
Damagedebate.
ThefirstisthatresidualdamagesturnouttobesignificantunderavarietyofIAMs,
and for a range of climate scenarios. This means that if adaptation is undertaken
normally, therewill remain a large amount of damage that is not eliminated. The
figuresforthatdamagevarybyregionandsectorandprovideausefulsourceoflikely
financialneeds.Second the ratioofadaptation to totaldamagesvariesby region, so
Loss and Damage from Climate Change
Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Titel
- Loss and Damage from Climate Change
- Untertitel
- Concepts, Methods and Policy Options
- Autoren
- Reinhard Mechler
- Laurens M. Bouwer
- Thomas Schinko
- Swenja Surminski
- JoAnne Linnerooth-Bayer
- Verlag
- Springer Open
- Datum
- 2019
- Sprache
- englisch
- Lizenz
- CC BY 4.0
- ISBN
- 978-3-319-72026-5
- Abmessungen
- 16.0 x 24.0 cm
- Seiten
- 580
- Schlagwörter
- Environment, Climate change, Environmental law, Environmental policy, Risk management
- Kategorien
- International
- Naturwissenschaften Umwelt und Klima