Seite - 360 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

360 A.MarkandyaandM.González-Eguino residual damageswill also vary for that reason.Third, the residual damagefigures will depend on the climate scenario, aswell as the discount rate and the assumed parameters of the climatemodel (equilibriumclimate sensitivity) aswell as that of thesocioeconomicmodel(damagefunctions).Theseuncertaintiesareverylargeand noonecanmakeanymeaningfulprojectionsof residualdamages in themediumto long term. Theadditionaldiscussion in thischapter raisesotheraspects thatcould influence the levels ofLoss andDamage.One is the fact that, since actual adaptation is very unlikely tobeoptimal, theamountof lossesanddamagesmaybe influencedby the sources fromwhichadaptationandL&Dprogramsarefinanced. Thesefindingsmayseemrathermeagre in termsof informingtheLossandDam- agedebate,butwewouldcontend that theystillprovideausefulguide to issues that needtoberesolved.Certainly, thereisscopeformuchmoreuseofeconomictools to understandeconomicallyefficient responses to futureclimate impacts. In themean- time,however, sincefinancial commitments forL&Dareunlikely tobedetermined formore than 5 years ahead at any time, themodels should focus on the potential Loss andDamage during that period, taking as given the adaptation programs that arerelativelywelldeterminedfor thatperiod.Asnewinformationcomesin,climate related damage estimationwill improve aswill the design of adaptation programs leading to improveduseof these toolsover time. References Ackerman F, Stanton E, Bueno R (2010) Fat tails, exponents, extreme uncertainty: simulating catastrophe inDICE.EcolEcon69(8):1657–1665.https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2010.03.0 13 ArentDJ,TolRSJ,FaustE,HellaJP,KumarS,StrzepekKM,TóthF,YanD(2014)Keyeconomic sectorsandservices. In:FieldCB,BarrosVR,DokkenDJ,MachKJ,MastrandreaMD,BilirTE, ChatterjeeM,EbiKL,EstradaYO,GenovaRC,GirmaB,KisselES,LevyAN,MacCrackenS, MastrandreaPR,WhiteLL(eds)Climatechange2014:impacts,adaptation,andvulnerability.Part A:globalandsectoralaspects.ContributionofworkinggroupII to thefifthassessment reportof the intergovernmentalpanelonclimatechange.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,United KingdomandNewYork,NY,USA,pp659–708 Baarsch F et al (2015) Impacts of low aggregate INDCs ambition: research commissioned by Oxfam. http://policy-practice.oxfam.org.uk/publications/impacts-of-low-aggregate-indcs-ambit ion-research-commissioned-by-oxfam-582427 BOND(2016)FinanceforLossanddamage:marrakechandbeyond.DevelopmentandEnvironment Group (DEG)WorkingPaper BoselloF,CarraroC,DeCianE (2010)Market andpolicydrivenadaptation. In:LomborgB(ed) Smart solutions to climate change—comparingcosts andbenefits.CambridgeUniversityPress, Cambridge,UK BurkeM,CraxtonM,KolstadCD,OndaC,AllcottH,BakerE,BarrageLetal(2016)Opportunities for advances in climate change economics. Science 352(6283):292–293. https://doi.org/10.112 6/science.aad9634 Carleton TA, Hsiang SM (2016) Social and economic impacts of climate. Science 353(6304):aad9837.https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837