Seite - 371 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

15 UnderstandingLossandDamage inPacificSmall Island… 371 15.2.1 Attribution Attribution isparticularlycomplex in thePacificIslandcountriesdue to thescarcity of data and knowledge, which could be used to monitor and understand change. For example, some resource and environmental management practices have been detrimentalontheislandsandassucharecontributingtonegativeimpactsintheform ofcoastalandcatchmenterosion.Suchpracticesarenotdirectlythecauseofclimate changebut ratherhuman-induced,andsomeof thesehavealso longhistorical roots, e.g.stemmingfromcolonialpracticesontheislands,suchasresourceextraction.For estimatingL&D linked to anthropogenic climate change, there needs to be a solid understanding how this can or ismeasured andwhat proxies can be used in cases where thenecessarydatadoesnot exist (ConwayandMustelin2014). 15.3 TheLossandDamageOptionsSpace in thePacific Ouranalysis suggests that theoptions-policyspacemaybeveryconstrained—espe- ciallywhendealingwithextremeorintolerablelossesanddamages(seeTable15.1). Most Pacific Islanders, up to 80% ormore in Vanuatu and Solomon Islands, are whollyorpartlydependentonsubsistencefarmingandfishing.Peopledependingon subsistence,especiallythoseinremotelocationswithverylimitedmarketeconomies, cannot simply change their livelihoods. This is the case even though the food gar- dens canbe increasinglyunproductive, or unable toprovide for changingdemands andlifestyles,suchashealth,education,andtechnologyexpenses—withconsequent rising food insecurity. Constraints to adaptation are most obvious in isolated and remote rural areas, however they also exist in urban areas. Increasingly a substantial part of the urban populations in most SWPacific countries live in informal settlements, character- izedas“urbanvillages”wheremanyoftheattributesofruralvillagesarereproduced (Jones2016),includingfoodgardensasanessentiallivelihoodstrategy.Formostpeo- pleinmostPacificIslandcountrieseconomicopportunitiesareverylimited,because of “the combinationof remoteness, small size, geographicdispersion, andenviron- mental fragility” (WorldBankGroup2017).As a consequence,manyPacificSIDS have seen only very limited increases in per capita incomes over the past 25 years (WorldBankGroup2017).This all acts to limit theoptions space. Withinthiscontext,weexaminewhatoptionsexistormightneedtobedeveloped for SWPacific Islands states, under the headings of tolerable and intolerable risk (Fig. 15.2).At present there are still tolerable risks,which canbemanaged largely through better climate changeadaptation, development and disaster risk reduction strategies. The option space can therefore appear to be broad, but is constrained as described above. Tolerable refers here to the circumstances people are dealing with today,while intolerable refers todevelopingcircumstances, but includescases wherepeoplearealreadyfacedwith thechoiceof relocation,anddecisions thatwill