Seite - 413 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

17 SupportingClimateRiskManagementatScale… 413 Table17.1 Characteristics and applicability of different decision-support tools for ex-ante and ex-postdisaster riskmanagement Decisionsupport tool Advantages Challenges Application CBA Rigorous framework basedoncomparing costswithbenefits Need formonetising all benefits, difficulty in representingplural values Well-specified hard-resilience projectswith economicbenefits CEA Ambition levelfixed, andonlycosts tobe compared. Intangible benefitspart. lossof lifedonotneedbe monetised Ambition levelneeds tobefixedandagreed upon Well-specified interventionswith important intangible impacts,whichshould notbeexceeded (loss of life etc.) MCA Considerationof multipleobjectives andpluralvalues Subjective judgments required,whichhinder replication Multipleandsystemic interventions involvingpluralvalues Robust approaches Addressing uncertaintyand robustness Technical and computingskills required Projectswith large uncertainties and long timeframes Gaming/Policy Exercise Trulyengaging stakeholders to inform decisions Extensive facilitation skills andability to managecomplexityof social interactions Community level interactions to inform decisionswith stakeholdersand decision-makers NoteCBACostbenefit analysis;CEACost-effectivenessanalysis;MCAMulti-criteria analysis Each has its strengths andweaknesses and is suited to different decision-making contexts. These methods andmetrics mostly require some expert facilitation. However, the information-actiongap inherent inprovidingexpert input toworkingwith local, nationaland international stakeholders for selectingoptions iswellknown.Failures toproduceuseful insight often resulted fromover-relianceonbiophysical data and inadequate appreciationof the diversity ofwaysdecisions aremade at all levels of society.Yet,understandingandanalysisofcomplexpolicy issues isoftenhampered by the high costs of gatheringdata about howvariousmembers of society actually think and decide about such issues. Similarly, scientists and policy makers often must invest years to gain experience critical tomanaging systems that change and evolvewithoutundertaking real risk (Sterman1994).This raises thequestion:How canwelowerthecostsof learningthroughexperience?“Seriousgaming”andpolicy exercises (alsoknownasOpenSimulations)haveemergedtofill thisgap(Dukeand Geurts2004).Suchexercisesusesocialsimulationtoolsthatcombinecomputational models andparticipationof real actors.Particularlywhenactionsare contestedand broadparticipation inknowledgeco-generationanddecision-making is required(as is thecase for theLossandDamagediscourse), seriousgamingapproachesbecome relevantandhavebeentestedandappliedintheZFRAwork(seeBox17.1onserious gamingobjectives).