Seite - 417 - in Loss and Damage from Climate Change - Concepts, Methods and Policy Options

17 SupportingClimateRiskManagementatScale… 417 (policyexercises),which, in later stagesof thecommunity interactionsmay inform theevaluationandselectionofoptionsandsolutions. Box17.2TheSystemsdynamicsmodelFLORESinvestigates the followingprob- lems • Modellingmedium to long-termdynamics of risk (that is to say: potential hazards andconditionsofvulnerabilityandcapacities)oftheRimacValleycommunitieswith respect tohuaycosandfloods. • Exploring theeffectsofdamages (direct impactsonhousingand infrastructure)and losses (indirect impacts) on livelihoods,markets andquality of life, usingdifferent modellingscenarios. • Investigating the influence of different disastermanagement capacities: emergency preparedness, response, reconstruction, exposure, physical vulnerability (fragility) andriskreductionmeasuresonflood/huaycoresilienceofcommunities intheRimac Valley. • Analysing the social and economic effects of the El Nino disturbance (including possiblemigrations)withindifferent climatic andpolicy scenarios. • Analysing theeffectsof institutionalarrangements (formalbutalso informal includ- ing illegal settlements,buildingand transportation)onfloodresilienceof theRimac Valleycommunities. • Identifyingmedium-long-termdevelopmentpathwaysthatavoidcreatingafloodrisk catastrophe (prospective risk reduction). Themodel is planned tobe furtherusedbySolucionesPrácticas staff to explore the critical variables and long-termdrivers of resilience andchange, andhow these interact to produce risk and development outcomes. Thismight assist in identify- ing critical entry points (intervention options) for project planning, and to produce advocacymaterials/messages to be used in engagingwith the disasters and devel- opment sectors in Peru. Themodel has a relatively user-friendly interface and can be computed very quickly,whichmakes it possible to use it in aworkshop setting togetherwith disaster experts or other stakeholders to analyse different scenarios, aswell asmodifyassumptions toproduceandexaminenewscenariosand/orpolicy options.Modellingworkshopscansupport expertsandpolicymakers tounderstand theproblemspace, anddevelopnew, evidence-basedpolicies addressing long-term challenges.Basedonthedevelopedmodel,apolicyexercisecanbedevelopedwhere agroupofstakeholderscanexaminestepbysteptheconsequencesoftheirdecisions, resultingboth fromthebiophysicaldynamicsandsocial interaction.