Seite - 21 - in options, Band winter 2014/2015

21winter 2014/2015 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at “Unique in this process was that we asked them not just about the factors they were sure about, but also to note things that are uncertain, but relevant to the future,” says Palazzo. “It is a lot of work, but it is worth it to know that we are not just pulling our scenarios for the future out of thin air.” In another recent project funded by the European Commission, IIASA researcher Jan Sendzimir and colleagues in 16 countries explored the conceptual and practical challenges of linking stories to models, working with stakeholders with an interest in climate change and freshwater resources in Europe. Wageningen University researcher Kasper Kok led the stakeholder interaction activities. He says, “The weakest link in connecting stories to models is turning the storyline into numbers. When you ask stakeholders to put a number on something, often they throw their arms up and say, ‘How am I supposed to know? You’re the expert.’” So the researchers introduced a way to include uncertainty in  their process, an approach known as Fuzzy Set Theory. “The reason it’s called ‘fuzzy’ is that we allow them to be uncertain,” says Kok. For example, when asked to define ‘low’ or ‘high’ rates of population growth, the stakeholders can provide an overlapping set of numbers as the definitions for low and high  growth. The goal of the project was for stakeholders to provide crucial inputs to a model that they could use themselves to examine the potential impacts of their choices. By involving them directly, said  Kok, the stakeholders also had more ownership over the process and results. He says, “Sometimes stakeholder input gets a bit lost under all the descriptions of modeling efforts. But we take their involvement very seriously. We try to produce scenarios that are authored by the stakeholders—not by the scientists.” Agreeing to disagree Another challenge with stakeholder consultation is that every person has a different worldview. “If you ask a group of engineers for a solution to retain water in a landscape, they’ll tell you to build a reservoir. Ask an environmentalist and they may argue for wetlands preservation,” says Bayer. In a long-running research project focused on landslide risk in the Italian town of Nocera Inferiore, Bayer and her colleagues worked with local residents and decision makers to define a risk management policy. In 2005, a massive landslide decimated the town and killed three people. But nearly 10 years later, the community remains at a stalemate with how to prevent such future catastrophes, because of public opposition to potential  solutions. The project took a new tack by encouraging the participants to maintain their own opinions and ideas, rather than push them to agree on a consensus. In that way, the researchers gathered a range of opinions and inputs and at the same time, allowed the participants to learn from each other. “Our goal was to encourage compromise,” says Bayer. Sometimes, the researchers say, numbers are not the best representation of reality—and recognizing that can be key to better science. Sendzimir says, “We must push to obtain numbers that allow us to model, for that enables us to much more rigorously explore options. But in many cases, we are not modeling reality. We are modeling people’s perceptions, and if we really better understood the diversity of perceptions involved and their implications, that would be an excellent contribution to better decision making.” KL Further info Kok K, Bärlund I, Flörke M, Gramberger M, Holman I, Sendzimir J, Stuch B, Zellmer K. European participatory scenario development: Strengthening the link between stories and models. Climatic Change (Published online 3 June 2014) [doi:10.1007/s10584-014-1143-y]. §  Kok K, van Vliet M, Bärlund I, Dubel  A, Sendzimir J (2011). Combining participative backcasting and exploratory scenario development: Experiences from the SCENES project. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 78(5):835–851 [doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.01.004]. Joanne Bayer bayer@iiasa.ac.at §  Amanda Palazzo palazzo@iiasa.ac.at § Jan Sendzimir sendzim@iiasa.ac.at By involving stakeholders directly in research aimed at policy solutions, researchers gain more buy-in from the people who will implement and be affected by new policies. In the photos above, stakeholders from  southeast Asia discuss climate adaptation during a workshop in Vietnam in November, 2013. Workshop photos: Elisabeth van de Grift | CGIAR (flickr.com CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) to science