Seite - 5 - in options, Band summer 2015

research news 5summer 2015 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at iiasa research Game theory sheds light on corruption Illegal logging is a major cause of deforestation around the world. But addressing the problem may be more complicated than previously thought, according to a new study in the Journal of Theoretical Biology, led by IIASA Evolution and Ecology Program (EEP) researcher Karl Sigmund. Researchers use game theory to examine how people and groups behave, in particular in problems involving public goods threatened by the tragedy of the commons. Models based on game theory have been used to show how institutions providing positive and negative incentives (rewards and penalties) can convince people to change their behavior for the good of the many. But what happens if these institutions themselves become corrupt, and the people who are supposed to enforce the rules don’t follow them? Who watches the watchers? The new study is the first to apply game theory to the problem of corruption in institutions, using illegal logging as a case study. It finds that once a system has descended into corruption, it is extremely difficult to change it. The same is true of a system that is not corrupt—once it is set up, it can trundle along with little investment and is  unlikely to become corrupt. In mathematical terms, this is known as bistability. What that means in real life, say the researchers, is that it may be far more difficult than people expect to fight corruption once it has set in. The study identifies several strategies that can work, however. First, educating the rule enforcers about corruption, could be more cost-effective than going after the perpetrators. Second, the study finds that making corruption public greatly improves the chances of corrupt officers changing their ways. EEP Director Ulf Dieckmann, who also contributed to the study, says that gaining a better understanding of the drivers of corruption could help improve governance practices  worldwide. KL Further info Lee J-H, Sigmund K, Dieckmann U, Iwasa Y (2015). Games of corruption: How to suppress illegal  logging. Journal of Theoretical Biology 367:1–13 [doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2014.10.037]. Karl Sigmund ksigmund@iiasa.ac.at Science for sustainable development? In a new comment in Nature, IIASA Deputy Director General Nebojsa Nakicenovic and  co‑authors argue that “science must be at the heart” of plans for the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which the UN is  set to adopt in September 2015. With 17 goals and 169 targets, the researchers say, the SDGs are far more complicated than the Millennium Development Goals they are replacing. Many of the aims still need  to be defined in more detail, and  new  monitoring and evaluation procedures will  be needed. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/sdg-nature-15 Earth Statement: A year of opportunity A statement by the Earth League on  Earth  Day, 22 April, highlighted the key role of events in 2015 on the path to a  sustainable future. The “Earth Statement,” signed by Earth League members including IIASA leaders, provided eight essential elements for climate action at the Paris climate summit in December. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/earthstatement-15 Forests of the future A new book, The Future Use of Nordic Forests, edited by IIASA researcher Florian  Kraxner provides the latest thinking on boreal forest management. The  book includes research on the impacts of  climate change on Scandinavian forests, as well as the future of sustainable forest management. In May, Kraxner and colleagues presented the new book at the  International Boreal Forests Research Association (IBFRA) conference in Helsinki. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/forest-15 Drought and climate change Many regions of the world, including the Mediterranean and the  western  United States, may see unprecedented drought due to climate change before the year 2050, according to  a new study presented this April at the  European Geosciences Union General Assembly. In the study, Yusuke  Satoh, a  postdoctoral researcher in IIASA’s Water  Program, projected for 26 world regions the point at which drought severity would  become unprecedented in  the  historical record. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/drought-15