Seite - 9 - in options, Band summer 2016

science into policy 9summer 2016 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at iiasa research Achieving the Sustainable Development Goals In April IIASA Deputy Director General Nebojsa Nakicenovic addressed the UN  General Assembly as part of the opening ceremony of a high‑level debate on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Nakicenovic was joined by IIASA Distinguished Visiting Fellow Jeffrey Sachs. This event brought together global political, business, and civil society leaders in New  York to kick start implementation of the SDGs. www.iiasa.ac.at/events/UNGA-16 Clean energy in Indonesia IIASA researchers contributed specially tailored analysis tools to the new Indonesian  Center of Excellence for Clean Energy, launched in February at the Bali Clean Energy Forum. The new online decision analysis tool, which IIASA researchers helped design, makes it possible for policymakers to examine the costs, benefits, and trade‑offs of various energy policy choices, with a particular focus on renewable energy. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Bali-16 The water–energy–food nexus As part of the UN Sustainable Energy for All Initiative, IIASA researcher Paul T. Yillia organized a workshop examining the water–energy–food nexus, bringing together experts from international development organizations, the private and public sectors, civil society, and academia. Participants discussed the energy agenda, and its cross‑cutting implications for the Sustainable Development Goals. To share insights from IIASA research under the Water Futures and Solutions initiative IIASA  researcher Peter Burek also attended  the workshop. www.iiasa.ac.at/events/SE4All-16 Air quality policies of the future In April IIASA researchers took part in a  debate on air quality at the European Parliament, as part of the final stages of the  project Socioeconomic Implications for Individual Responses to Air Pollution Policies in EU  +27. IIASA is one of the partners of this  transdisciplinary project, which has contributed to a review of air quality policies and legislation by pointing out the strengths and weaknesses of the air quality process, from EU directives to national and regional implementation. www.iiasa.ac.at/events/SEFIRA-16 Can carbon markets work? C O2 emissions trading schemes—which allow factories, businesses, or even countries to trade emissions allowances—were created to reduce emissions in the most cost‑efficient manner. Those emitters for whom the costs of cutting emissions are high would trade with others where the costs are low, meeting the same climate targets but at a lower price. However, carbon markets have been floundering. This is in part because of substantial unknowns about how much greenhouse gas is being emitted and how much it will cost to reduce it. “These are major uncertainties” says IIASA researcher Tatiana Ermolieva. “We  created a prototype model of a carbon market that shows that if emitters could reduce them it would be of great benefit.” “Let’s say trader A is looking to buy carbon credits from trader B. Trader A works out how much they are willing to pay based on their average emissions. But if their emissions turn out to be higher they must buy more permits at a later date to fulfill their climate targets. Because they can no longer buy in advance the prices are higher.” If trader A had been able to predict their emissions more precisely they would have been able to buy closer to the right number of credits in the first place, saving money. Countries or factories can do this by investing in more research or better monitoring equipment which can reveal more exactly how much they emit. Reducing uncertainties also creates a more stable, forward‑thinking market. Investing in emissions reductions technology requires traders to take the long view, calculating that in five or ten years, when the equipment is paid off, they will be in a better position. Under a more stable market, traders may decide that their money is better spent on abatement technologies, ultimately driving more sustainable solutions for emissions reductions. DB Further info Ermoliev  Y, Ermolieva  T, Jonas  M, Obersteiner  M, Wagner  F, Winiwarter  W (2015). Integrated  model for robust emission trading under uncertainties: Cost-effectiveness and environmental safety. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 98:234–244 [doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.003]. Tatiana Ermolieva ermol@iiasa.ac.at