Seite - 25 - in options, Band summer 2017

asia & oceania 25 regional focus www.iiasa.ac.at summer 2017 ◼ options Floods, fires, earthquakes, and storms: Australia is one of the countries most frequently hit by disasters. But estimates of annual disaster cost range widely—from 1.75 to 3.26 billion AU$, according to recent research. Changing monsoon patterns in India—which are tied to higher temperatures in the Indian Ocean—are an even greater driver of change in groundwater storage than the pumping of groundwater for agriculture, according to new research from IIASA and the Indian Institute of Technology. Satellite measurements have shown major declines in groundwater storage in some parts of the country, particularly in northern India in recent years. And groundwater withdrawals in the country have increased over tenfold since the 1950s, from 10-20 cubic kilometers per year in 1950, to 240-260 in 2009. The issue of groundwater depletion has been a topic of much discussion in India, but most planning has focused on pumping, or the demand side, rather than the deposit side, or how much water is going into the ground. By looking at water levels in wells around the country, the researchers could track groundwater replenishment following the monsoons. They found that in fact, variability in the monsoons is the key factor driving the changing groundwater storage levels across the country, even as withdrawals increase. “Weather is uncertain by nature, and the impacts of climate change are extremely difficult to predict at a regional level,” says IIASA researcher Yoshihide Wada, who contributed to the study. “But our research suggests that we must focus more attention on this side of the equation if we want to sustainably manage water resources for the future.” KL How much do disasters cost Australia? “The concept of disaster cost initially seems fairly straightforward. However, when we look at estimates we find a huge amount of variety. Even questions such as ‘which disaster type does the most damage’ are very difficult to answer because of the confounding variety of estimates, born of different data sources and methodologies,” explains IIASA researcher Adriana Keating, who worked on the new study. The study examined disaster-cost estimates and the data from which they were generated, aiming to explain the differences. The confusion in large part comes from cataloging different types of damage. Costs can be direct, such as the destruction of a house or road, or indirect, such as lost profits when a business is forced to close. And while some costs have a clear monetary value, others such as environmental and cultural losses are more difficult to put a number on. Even the loss of life can be difficult to value. “We know that investing in risk reduction is often more cost- effective than waiting for disaster to strike and cleaning up the mess afterwards. In order to support arguments for investment in risk reduction, and estimate the most cost-effective investments, policymakers need information about how much disasters cost, where they strike, and which types require the most urgent attention,” says Keating. KL Further info Asoka A, Gleeson T, Wada Y, & Mishra V (2017). Relative contribution of monsoon precipitation and pumping to changes in groundwater storage in India. Nature Geoscience 10 (2): 109-117 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14233] Yoshihide Wada wada@iiasa.ac.at Further info Ladds M, Keating A, Handmer J, & Magee L (2017). How much do disasters cost? A comparison of disaster cost estimates in Australia. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction 21: 419-429 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14291] Adriana Keating keatinga@iiasa.ac.at Changing rainfall patterns linked to water security in India