Seite - 23 - in options, Band summer 2018

europe 23 regional focus www.iiasa.ac.at summer 2018 ◼ options Climate change is one of the gravest threats to our environment. Rising sea levels, extinction of animal species, and stronger storm systems are some of the most well-known consequences. Perhaps the most serious issue however, is the devastating effect that climate change may have on the global food supply. One reason this threat is not well known is that current crop yield projections are not very accurate, in part because they do not take into account soil degradation processes. In a study published in the journal Earth’s Future, Juraj Balkovic shows that even a 2°C increase in average temperature will likely impact food supply in Europe. With higher atmospheric temperature and increased weather variability, crop-based calorie supply becomes sensitive to soil degradation, particularly in the form of decreased organic matter and erosion. This means that affected crops will have fewer calories than before. Areas like Eastern Europe and the Baltic lack the capacity to manage this nutrient loss and the effects on crop production could be severe. “Recent projections indicate that Europe will warm at a faster rate than the global average, and a 2°C increase of global warming may significantly impact European agriculture,” explains Balkovic, a researcher in the Ecosystems Services and Management Program at IIASA. “Healthy soils help crops to cope better with future climate and increased weather variability. We must guide our actions to avoid soil degradation in the face of climate change if we hope to keep our soils healthy for future generations.” JS In today’s world, companies must be able to respond quickly to shifts in their operational markets. The most successful companies often try to predict potential changes so that they can be ready to adjust should one of those changes ever come about. Traditional strategic planning is however largely built on the concept of taking current trends and extrapolating from them. More and more, companies are beginning to utilize scenario- based planning methods. While traditional strategic planning Analyzing the impact of climate change on European agriculture Further info Vilkkumaa E, Liesiö J, Salo A, & Ilmola-Sheppard L (2018). Scenario-based portfolio model for building robust and proactive strategies. European Journal of Operational Research: 1-32. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14832] Leena Ilmola-Sheppard ilmola@iiasa.ac.at Further info Balkovic J, Skalsky R, Folberth C, Khabarov N, Schmidt E, Madaras M, Obersteiner M, & van der Velde M (2018). Impacts and Uncertainties of +2°C of Climate Change and Soil Degradation on European Crop Calorie Supply. Earth’s Future: 1-55. [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15118] Juraj Balkovic balkovic@iiasa.ac.at focuses on what is perceived to be the single most likely future, scenario-based planning considers numerous plausible futures. This improved model enables companies to recognize uncertainties that might have otherwise gone unnoticed. In a study published in the European Journal of Operational Research, Leena Ilmola-Sheppard and her peers present a scenario-based portfolio model that helps companies build more robust and proactive strategies for continued success. This is especially useful in the face of increasing uncertainties. “We are living in a systemic world, dominated by uncertainty. Even if we are not able to predict the future, it is important to understand the potential impacts of our decisions,” explains Ilmola-Sheppard, a researcher in the IIASA Advanced Systems Analysis Program. “Previously, we did not have a simple way to take this feedback into consideration. The new extension of Robust Portfolio Modeling is providing us with tools to do just that. In addition to the identification of the most robust portfolio of actions, decision-makers can also use this approach for the simulation of potential decision options.” JS Predicting likely outcomes for effective strategic planning