Seite - 20 - in options, Band summer 2020

South Africa is one of the world’s leading producers and exporters of agricultural products. Roughly one in ten South Africans are employed in the agriculture sector, with total export earnings topping US$10 billion in recent years. Despite this, around 10% of households in the country experience hunger. With the population set to grow significantly and also get richer over the next three decades, South Africa will need to find a way to not only increase agricultural production, but also ensure access to food for all citizens. In a recent research report, IIASA Water Program researchers Günther Fischer and Sylvia Tramberend modeled projections for the South African agricultural sector through 2050. The study found that during this time, the nation’s population will grow by 10 to 17 million people. Additionally, per capita income will increase by 150 to 200%. This income increase will likely result in dietary shifts towards healthier options, like vegetables, fruits, and livestock. According to these models, South Africa has the resources to increase production to meet rising demand. However, sustained growth is heavily dependent on careful planning and water use for irrigation. "South Africa is a good example of complex system linkages having an effect on food security,” explains Fischer. “While increasing agricultural production is a prerequisite, sustainable development must also ensure access to healthy, high-nutrient food options for all citizens. It is important that policymakers take the guidance of systems analysis models into account when planning for food security over the coming decades.” A mere century ago, the vast majority of the global population lived in rural areas. Today, however, more than half of all people live in cities. As people continue to flock to cities, the need for adequate water and sanitation infrastructure will become more important than ever before. Nowhere has this pressing need been documented more extensively than in South Africa. The city of Cape Town is an excellent case study for efficient water supply as it has seen a rising influx of people. Since 2015, the city has faced a long period of severe drought, largely due to climate change. By mid- 2017, the city faced an existential threat of running out of water. Luckily, this day never came, but the crisis exposed vulnerabilities in the city’s water supply system. Moreover, it became an example on the world stage for how cities—especially those in the Global South— can enhance governance around climate change adaptation. In a recent study, IIASA Risk and Resilience Program researcher Wei Liu, interviewed two researchers that have devoted years to studying the Cape Town drought. “It is clear that the responsibility for water issues can no longer only be the remit of government,” explains interviewee Gina Ziervogel. “We need to build systems and relationships of mutual accountability for effective water management between spheres of government, enhance horizontal management between municipal departments and entities, and strengthen leadership and the capacity to enable flexible and adaptive decision-making.” Climate adaptation lessons learned from the Cape Town drought A F R I C A Using modeling to plan for agricultural production increase in South Africa Regional impacts Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16032 Günther Fischer: fischer@iiasa.ac.at Wei Liu: liuw@iiasa.ac.at Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/15796 Productivity increases 2000-2050, per scenario: Scenario implementation and simulations using IIASA World Food System model. By Jeremy Summers 2000 110 150 130 170 190 2015 2030 2050 20 Options www.iiasa.ac.atSummer 2020