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Trade between nearby states in the US is mutually beneficial and is at the heart of interstate commerce. However, growing concerns over natural resources make interstate food transfers prime for analysis. Groundwater aquifers are, for instance, often shared by vast regions and increasing reliance on these water sources immediately impact agriculture and trade for all nearby states. In a recent study, Advanced Systems Analysis Program researcher Nemi Vora and her coauthors used systems analysis methods to measure trade interdependencies between states. Using pointwise mutual information (PMI), the team measured expected trade versus statistical expectations based on the structure and flow of trade networks. They found that overreliance on common aquifers for irrigation poses a threat of water shortage for food supply in Texas and neighboring states. Additionally, the study found that states with ample water resources rely on fossil fuels like diesel and gasoline for irrigation. This means avoiding water scarcity will require a potential tradeoff between resources needed to procure water for irrigation and investing in equipment that will reduce emissions. “Our current food supply chain is often not optimized for using available natural resources,” explains Vora. “Systems analysis methodologies, such as combining PMI with environmental life cycle assessment can provide a quick estimate of alternative options given current trade, without going into detailed economic models, and help policymakers continue to meet these demands in ways that are both sustainable and environmentally friendly.” Biofuels are often considered essential for meeting increasing energy demands while reducing global greenhouse gas emissions. However, long-standing concerns have moderated the perception of their efficacy, as clearing native vegetation to grow biofuel crops leads to significant carbon emission increases, sometimes even more than traditional fossil fuels. In the 1970s Brazil embraced biofuels and consequently established itself as the global leader in biofuel production, until the US launched its own program in the early 2000s. Future demand may however lead the country to increase its sugar cane plantations by a further 5 million hectares by 2030. As part of a Young Summer Scientists Program project, IIASA researchers modeled potential increases in ethanol production with respect to key influencing drivers, such as population growth and energy efficiency. They found that increased sugarcane production could be done largely in pasturelands and natural vegetation areas. As such, the study shows that Brazil could increase production without significantly affecting food production or increasing deforestation. However, the changing political landscape could reduce environmental protections that are vital to sustainable biofuel production in Brazil. "Biofuel policies have triggered very legitimate concerns in terms of sustainability,” explains Hugo Valin, a researcher in the IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program. “Sugar cane is one of the most efficient ways to produce ethanol, and land use change impacts should remain limited in the case of Brazil. However, we must remain vigilant as Brazil’s political context is constantly changing and it remains to be seen if environmental safeguards will be maintained.” Exploring biofuels without increased deforestation A M E R I C A S Analyzing US trade interdependencies using the Food-Energy-Water Nexus concept Hugo Valin: valin@iiasa.ac.at Nemi Vora: vora@iiasa.ac.at Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16046 Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16082 Regional impacts 21Optionswww.iiasa.ac.at Summer 2020