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16 options + winter 2015/2016 www.iiasa.ac.at Balancing conflicts and identifying synergies In a recent study commissioned by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program Director Michael Obersteiner and colleagues provided one of the first efforts to examine the linkages between the environment, food security, and climate change. “The structure of this analysis is looking at policies in a single sector, to find out how they affect other sectors—for example, what is the global effect of a carbon tax on food security,” says  IIASA researcher Brian Walsh, who worked on the analysis. Using the IIASA Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM), the researchers found that all 17 of the SDGs imply competition for land, food, water, and energy. “This study emphasizes the potential for synergy and management of the trade-offs between the SDGs,” says Obersteiner. Even in the interdisciplinary research environment at IIASA, studies that cross multiple disciplines are a methodological challenge and can stretch the limits of models and computer power. Each new sector added into a calculation adds a level of complexity and requires the models to be modified so that they can “talk” to one other. In a new project currently being planned with the Global Environment Facility and United Nations Industrial Development Organization—Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land—researchers will work across four main sectors: ecosystems, food, energy, and water. The project will for the first time link together some of the cutting-edge models developed at IIASA— including GLOBIOM and MESSAGE (Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact)— with a water resource model. This will create a “supermodel” of sorts that can assess the trade-offs and synergies among multiple  sectors. In addition to modeling studies and scenarios, the project will include case studies focused on specific regions, in order to incorporate on-the-ground perspectives and practical information. “The goal is to identify how the solutions change when these other dimensions are incorporated,” Johnson explains. “The scientific challenge is that each one of these sectors, or silos, is  incredibly complicated. It’s too big for any one group. So the challenge is to break down these silos and get people to think outside of their box to work together on something so multi-disciplinary.” Another new research project, The  World in 2050, takes an even broader view of the SDGs, looking beyond the end of the initiative to the year 2050. IIASA is partnering with the Stockholm Resilience Center at Stockholm University, the Earth Institute at Columbia  University, and the Sustainable Development Solutions Network to build holistic pathways for achieving equitable development without overreaching planetary boundaries. Together, these research projects and other new and continuing projects at IIASA provide multiple levels of analysis that will help inform the implementation of the SDGs. “It’s a nested structure,” says Johnson. “The UNEP project was looking at the trade-offs between ecosystems and food production; the Integrated Solutions for Water, Energy, and Land project is  looking at ecosystems, food, energy, and water; and The World in 2050 is trying to assess all 17 SDGs at a higher level, with a longer time horizon. Each one of these lower level modeling projects will inform the ones above them.” Science for policy—global and national While research supporting the SDGs is still in early phases, connections with policymakers have already begun in earnest. IIASA leaders took part in the Third International Conference Energy and the importance of quantitative targets Each SDG carries within it a plethora of challenges and objectives, which require their own in-depth analysis and linkage to other goals. For example Goal 7 relates to energy, one of the core research areas at IIASA. The targets for this goal, which include quantitative targets on energy efficiency, renewable energy, and energy access, were drawn in large part from the conclusions of the IIASA-coordinated Global  Energy Assessment (GEA), through  the Sustainable Energy for All initiative. Nakicenovic, who directed the GEA, says, “IIASA has made contributions to many of the SDGs, but in particular to SDG7—the only SDG that has three quantitative targets.” The other SDGs, Nakicenovic argues, would benefit from a similarly focused analysis to determine realistic quantitative targets as well as integrated analysis to identify cost-saving synergies and avoidable trade-offs related to other goals. “Energy is very much linked to the other SDGs including poverty, water, food security, and of course climate change,” says McCollum. “As countries think about their plans to meet their energy targets, they also need to be aware of how those actions may work for or against the other goals.” +