Seite - 22 - in options, Band winter 2015/2016

africa 22 options + winter 2015/2016 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Madagascar policymakers use CATSIM in disaster risk planning Frequent but low-intensity cyclones in Madagascar tend not to attract much media attention—or the international aid that often results—but the cumulative effect of three to four cyclones a year over many decades has been devastating. To build financial resilience to recurrent disasters the government has taken a proactive approach, using the free, user-friendly, and interactive CATSIM (catastrophe simulation) model developed by IIASA. This model helps to understand how risk can be broken down into segments which can then be absorbed by allocating or obtaining funds from elsewhere, and  clarifies the costs and constraints of doing this. In a recent workshop, around 30 key policymakers tested the model using a number of scenarios for planning an effective disaster risk management strategy; options ranged from diversion from public funds to post-disaster loans to setting up insurance instruments. The event, which follows 22 other high-level workshops from Asia to the Caribbean, including one in Madagascar in 2012, is the subject of a case study by IIASA researcher Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler (who developed the original 2005 model with Reinhard Mechler) and Junko Mochizuki. Their findings will inform further improvements to CATSIM: the aim is to eventually “mainstream” disaster risks into development planning. “What came out of the case study was the need for better cooperation between different ministries, including health, agriculture, and education, about how the pot of money can be shared,” says Mochizuki. “And more detailed assessments of the effects of cyclone events, both quantitative and qualitative, will  enable the ‘next-generation’ CATSIM to look at future as well as current risk.” CW Further info Hochrainer-Stigler S, Mechler R, Mochizuki J (2015). A risk management tool for tackling country-wide contingent disasters: A case study on Madagascar. Environmental Modelling & Software 72:44–55 [doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.06.004]. Junko Mochizuki mochizuk@iiasa.ac.at Solar power beats grid in Kenya’s drive for energy access Access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, and modern energy is a United Nations Sustainable Development Goal, but in Kenya, eight in ten households (and more in rural areas) lack access to electricity. The government’s stated aim is an electrification rate of 40% by 2020. An important question is whether implementing standalone photovoltaic (PV) systems would be a more cost-effective way of achieving this than extension of the national grid. IIASA researcher Shonali Pachauri, along with coauthor Marianne Zeyringer, a  past participant of the IIASA Young Scientists Summer Program, examined this issue. “Other studies have focused on the supply side,” Pachauri says. “Our novel approach combines a regression model to estimate demand with a supply optimization model to identify least-cost  options.” Using a detailed dataset from the Kenyan household budget survey, the researchers compared households that could consume electricity and are within 100 meters of the national grid, to  households without access. After accounting for socioeconomic variables such as household size and non-food expenditure, they were able to estimate current latent demand for electricity in Kenyan households and, in a second analysis, predict demand across all regions in 2020. They found that use of standalone PV systems is the more cost-effective solution for most rural areas with low population density and low demand. This contradicts some assumption-based approaches which recommend extending the national grid. “Our  study shows how important it is to have a realistic idea of demand and its regional variability in the planning of infrastructure for resources like energy and water,” says Pachauri. “Otherwise it’s just guesswork.” CW Further info Zeyringer M, Pachauri S, Schmid E, Schmidt J, Worrell E, Morawetz  UB (2015). Analyzing grid extension and stand-alone photovoltaic systems for the cost-effective electrification of Kenya Energy for  Sustainable Development 25:75–86 [doi:10.1016/j.esd.2015.01.003]. Shonali Pachauri pachauri@iiasa.ac.at Cyclone Giovanna affected Madagascar in February 2012 School children from Kembu primary school holding solar lights, Longisa,  Bomet  county,  Kenya