Seite - 25 - in options, Band winter 2015/2016

asia & oceania 25winter 2015/2016 + optionswww.iiasa.ac.at regional focus Better old‑age measure needed in East Asia In China there is an oft-expressed concern that the country will “get old before it gets rich.” Over-65s make up 12% of the population, but the United Nations forecasts this will rise to 30% in 2060; in  Japan, Republic of Korea, and Taiwan the figure is around 35%. This would make the Old Age Dependency Ratio (OADR)—the number of over-65s dependent on those aged 20–64—higher than anywhere in Europe. IIASA researchers Sergei Scherbov and Warren Sanderson (also  of Stony Brook University) find the OADR as a measure of “old  age” anachronistic. “It dates back to the early 20th century when retirement was linked to the onset of decrepitude,” says Scherbov. “It is also misleading in an Asian context, where more women and older people work, often in informal employment.” They suggest redefining old age based on a fixed “Remaining Life Expectancy” (RLE) of 15 years. Under this method the prospective OADR (or POADR) indicates the number of people older than the RLE dependent on those aged between 20  and  the RLE— which is a much lower figure. “This is a more appropriate measure of ‘old age’ in East Asia,” Sanderson adds. “Not only due to great improvements in life expectancy and dramatic falls in birth rates, but also because the role of the family still supersedes that of the state in providing care for the elderly. Policymakers will be making a mistake if they ignore improvements in  life expectancy and institute policies with unchanging age thresholds.” CW Further info Basten S, Scherbov S, Sanderson WC. Better way to measure ageing in East Asia that takes life expectancy into account. Australasian Journal on Ageing (forthcoming). Sergei Scherbov scherbov@iiasa.ac.at Warren  Sanderson sanders@iiasa.ac.at Can social networks aid tsunami preparedness? The community of Phang Nga, Thailand, was hard hit by the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004. Over 4,000 people died and another 5,000 were injured, and the region suffered major infrastructure and economic damages. In a new study published in the journal PLoS ONE, IIASA researcher Raya  Muttarak and colleagues in Thailand found that social engagement is a key factor in preparing for disasters such as the 2004 tsunami—that is, people who participate more in community activities and social events are more likely to take actions that will help them survive or avoid future disasters. The study was based on household surveys of over 500 families in Phang  Nga. After the 2004 tsunami, the regional government became active in setting up tsunami early warning systems and disaster training programs. The researchers conducted their survey immediately after another major earthquake in the region in 2012, using the earthquake event as a test case for disaster preparedness. “We found that in tsunami-prone areas, people who have participated in community activities are more likely to undertake disaster risk reduction actions,” says Muttarak. Disaster reduction actions include simple things like closely following the news in a disaster situation, more in-depth actions like creating a family emergency action plan, or even more extreme measures such as deciding to migrate to a safer location. KL Further info Witvorapong N, Muttarak R, Pothisiri  W (2015). Social participation and disaster risk reduction behaviors in tsunami prone areas. PLoS  ONE [doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0130862]. Raya Muttarak muttarak@iiasa.ac.at Old man in Busan, South Korea