Seite - 18 - in options, Band winter 2016/2017

18 options + winter 2016/2017 www.iiasa.ac.at O ur food supply is under threat worldwide. To tackle this we need a good understanding of future climate change, as well as its interactions with our food resources. Using systems science we need to understand how our actions, from wars to trade agreements, can affect food security, and how we can adapt to a changing world. What is secure in a changing world? Food security does not mean simply having enough to eat now and enough seed put aside for next year’s crop. In today’s world we must also prepare for the global, long‑term changes to come. Predicting the effects of climate change on our food sources requires large‑scale data on which crops are grown where, how  vulnerable they are to climate change, and what management practices or technologies are in place. To tailor this information to policymakers’ needs, IIASA has helped to create a new interactive website MapSPAM, which maps 42 of the world’s key crops at  ten‑kilometer resolution. Soil type also has a vital part to play, recent IIASA work has shown. “Different soils can have very difference characteristics, in  terms of levels of nutrients or water‑retention capacity, for example,” says  IIASA researcher Christian Folberth. “Some soils act like a sponge, for instance, providing water to plants throughout a drought.” In fact, in regions that use only small amounts of fertilizer or irrigation—often the poorer areas—crop yields might be even more closely linked to the cultivated soil type than weather. This finding has important consequences for improving food security, says Folberth. “By using accurate soil data in our models we can provide farmers with better advice on how to select the right crops for their soils and how to manage their soils to prevent them from becoming degraded.” Diversity to cope with change Just as our soils may gradually lose their ability to provide for us, another slowly emerging threat is our influence on the very gene pools of the organisms we rely on for food. So‑called heritage crops, from purple carrots to ancient strains of wheat, are suddenly popular, in part because there is a real concern that the genetic diversity of our food is declining to  dangerous levels. If only a single strain remains disease might decimate any crop, and indeed we have already lost an important strain of bananas. Planning for the future to ensure no one goes hungry OUR DAILY BREAD