Seite - 26 - in options, Band winter 2016/2017

europe 26 options + winter 2016/2017 www.iiasa.ac.at regional focus A deluge of data helps flood impact forecasting Mopping up the mud and counting the costs are fresh memories for Europeans who have lived through recent floods. Now, following a fresh analysis of data by IIASA researchers and the Joint Research Centre—Institute for Environment and Sustainability (JRC‑IES), the impact of river floods in Europe could be lessened and the gates opened to flood impact forecasting across the continent. “Combining early flood forecasts with a simultaneous estimate of people affected and potential damage could help (relief) organisations plan their actions,” says IIASA researcher Peter Burek who, with colleagues from the JRC‑IES, has been modeling the social and economic impact of river floods in Europe. The researchers studied flood impacts on all countries between 1990 and 2013. They propose a model which uses meteorological data “as soon as it’s available” to project the potential impact of the flood even as the waters are rising. “This allows a considerable time gain in comparison to post‑flood assessment,” says Burek, referring to the mobilisation of aid for those affected. There is also potential for flood impact forecasting on a European scale by identifying areas at risk in the coming 10–15  days. This  would allow “estimation of possible consequences,” says  Burek, highlighting the crucial importance of early assessment of the magnitude of an imminent flood. KS Further info Alfieri  L, Feyen  L, Salamon  P, Thielen  J,  et  al. (2016). Modelling the socio‑economic impact of  river floods in Europe. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 16(6):1401–1411 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13340]. Peter Burek burek@iiasa.ac.at In a climate of uncertainty, delaying decisions can cost In 1998 Bill Clinton, then US President, said, “Uncertainty is the enemy.” He was referring to the economy, but could easily have described uncertainty as the enemy of decision makers grappling with greenhouse gas emission targets. Using Austria as a case study, IIASA researchers Matthias Jonas and colleague Piotr  Z˙ebrowski describe how delaying climate change mitigation measures increases the uncertainty around meeting emission and warming targets. For example, because of past delays in mitigation measures Austria will now have to reduce per capita emissions by more than 90% in  order to meet its 2050 target. That’s quite a challenge, however: “We  had to come up with a globally consistent framework for reducing greenhouse gas emissions at national scales,” says Jonas. The Austrian Climate Research Program has now taken on that framework and, once approved, will implement it following the ClimTrans2050 Research Plan. This plan calls for an open source model which focuses on factors such as nutrition, shelter, and mobility to ensure societal wellbeing in a low carbon world. The researchers stress that their framework can be used to monitor a country’s past performance and its future prospects for complying with a global warming target. This new analysis “reinforces the point that delaying mitigation will make it more difficult to achieve required reductions and will result in greater uncertainty that targets will be met” says Jonas. KS Further info Jonas  M, Z˙ebrowski  P  (2016). Uncertainty in an Emissions Constrained World: Method Overview and Data Revision. IIASA  Working  Paper WP‑16‑009 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/13295]. Matthias Jonas jonas@iiasa.ac.at