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SIX TRANSFORMATIONS NEEDED TO ACHIEVE THE SDGS: MAJOR REPORT LAUNCHED INDIA NOT ON TRACK FOR 2030 CHILD MORTALITY TARGETS PARIS CLIMATE TARGETS COULD BE EXCEEDED SOONER THAN EXPECTED The World in 2050 initiative launched a report at the UN High-level Political Forum, Transformations to Achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, setting out six transformations that will enable humanity to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). They encompass demography, consumption and production, decarbonization and energy, food, biosphere and water, cities, and the digital revolution. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/TWI2050-18 Almost half of the districts in India are not on track to reduce the mortality rates of newborns and meet the target set out under Sustainable Development Goal 3 for 2030, while a third will not meet the target for under-five mortality rates, according to IIASA research. India still has the world’s highest number of child deaths, and states must do more. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/child-mortality-18 A new study led by IIASA researcher Thomas Gasser has for the first time comprehensively accounted for permafrost carbon release when estimating emission budgets for climate targets. The results show that the world might be closer to exceeding the budget for the long-term target of the Paris climate agreement than previously thought. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/Permafrost-18 News in brief Written by: Helen Tunnicliffe Climate taxes on agriculture could lead to more food insecurity than climate change itself New IIASA-led research has found that a single climate mitigation scheme applied to all sectors in the form of a global carbon tax could result in more widespread hunger and food insecurity than the direct impacts of climate change. Smarter, inclusive policies are necessary instead. The researchers, led by Tomoko Hasegawa, a researcher at IIASA and Japan’s National Institute for Environment Studies, and Shinichiro Fujimori, an IIASA researcher and associate professor at Kyoto University, summarized outputs of eight global economic models, including GLOBIOM, to analyze various scenarios to 2050. The models suggest that by 2050 climate change could be responsible for putting on average an extra 24 million people at risk of hunger. However, if agriculture were included in very stringent climate mitigation schemes, such as a global carbon tax or a comprehensive emissions trading system applying the same rules to all sectors, the increase in food prices would be such that an average of 78 million more people would be at risk of hunger. Some models put the figure as high as 170 million. The researchers stress that their results should not be used to argue against vital emissions reduction efforts. Instead, the research shows the importance of “smart” targeted policy design, particularly in agriculture. Policymakers must scrutinize other factors more closely, rather than focusing only on the goal of reducing emissions. The researchers suggest, among others, schemes encouraging more productive and resilient agricultural systems and complementary policies to counteract the impact of mitigation policies on vulnerable regions. For example, money raised from carbon taxes could be used for food aid programs. Further info: Hasegawa T, Fujimori S, Havlík P, Valin H, Bodirsky BL, Doelman JC, Fellmann T, Kyle P et al. (2018). Risk of increased food insecurity under stringent global climate change mitigation policy. Nature Climate Change [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15389] Tomoko Hasegawa: hasegawa@iiasa.ac.at OptionsWinter 2018/19www.iiasa.ac.at 3