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News in brief Written by: Helen Tunnicliffe Novel framework to address uncertainty in water management IIASA researchers have developed a general decision-making framework to support policy decisions on the management of water resources, which for the first time, explicitly takes into account the associated uncertainties. Reliable access to clean water is a key aspect of the Sustainable Development Goals. The researchers analyzed the wide range of possible future conditions likely to pose significant planning challenges for water management authorities in vulnerable regions and river basins. “We identified changes in the uncertainty range of anticipated water scarcity conditions and based on this assessment, developed a general decision-making framework to support the design of policy options,” says Peter Greve, IIASA Water Program researcher and lead author of the study published in Nature Sustainability. There are many options available to decision makers to address water scarcity, including investments in water storage and transfer infrastructure, desalination plants, and economic incentives. In addition, water sector challenges vary considerably between countries and regions. Due to the economic risks involved, decisions must be based on reliable projections or address large uncertainties through flexible planning. Rather than being based on single models or multi-model averages, the new framework is based on 45 water scarcity projections representing different socioeconomic pathways, climate change conditions, and modeling approaches. It provides grid-scale guidelines, rather than commonly used country- or basin-scales. The researchers say that the purpose of this new framework is not to substitute local assessments, but to contribute to overall planning and implementation processes. It is especially suitable for regional, national, and multinational water authorities, as well as socioeconomic stakeholders. © Robert Burtscher | IIASA Further info: Greve P, Kahil T, Mochizuki J, Schinko T, Satoh Y, Burek P, Fischer G, Tramberend S, Burtscher R, Langan S, Wada Y (2018). Global assessment of water challenges under uncertainty in water scarcity projections. Nature Sustainability [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15452] Peter Greve: greve@iiasa.ac.at DIVERSITY AND EDUCATION INFLUENCE INDIA’S POPULATION GROWTH HOLISTIC POLICIES CRITICAL FOR SUCCESS OF LOW CARBON VEHICLES REDUCTION OF SOIL MICROBES LIMIT FEEDBACKS IN A WARMING CLIMATE Differences within India’s population, including in age, gender, and level of education, influence population projections for years to come, according to research conducted by IIASA and the Asian Demographic Research Institute. This information could help India and its workforce catch up to more developed countries with higher GDP per capita by, for example, investing in education. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/India-Pop-18 Policies to entice consumers away from fossil-fuel powered vehicles and normalize low carbon alternatives are vital if the world is to reduce transport sector carbon emissions, according to new research. The study is the first to look at the non-financial reasons why consumers choose certain vehicles and the climate implications those choices may have. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/low-carbon- cars-18 Soil microbes get more active in warmer temperatures, causing increased CO2 emissions. A new study however shows that during prolonged warming the amount of microbial biomass decreases, balancing the effect. The researchers say this natural mechanism could prevent the perpetual release of soil carbon into the atmosphere, which is good news for climate change. www.iiasa.ac.at/news/soil-microbes-18 5www.iiasa.ac.at OptionsWinter 2018/19