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A study by AFI and World Population Program researcher Anastasia Emelyanova examined recent population developments in the Arctic and modeled future demographic trends towards 2050. Her innovative work suggests that education as a factor of human capital may in future drive demographic shifts in the region. Several communities have already expressed interest in the results, which could provide valuable input for stakeholders on decisions concerning future developments. The rapid and extensive changes in the region also include an increased focus on industrial development, which has led to the deployment of large infrastructure projects in Arctic countries. Although such projects can be seen as beneficial on a national level, the benefits are not always as immediately evident to local communities. A study undertaken in Finland by AFI and Risk and Resilience Program researchers Mia Landauer and Nadejda Komendantova, looked at how local people can be more actively involved in the planning of large infrastructure projects that have impacts on traditional livelihoods such as reindeer husbandry. They investigated how stakeholders involved in Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) perceive the participation of reindeer herders in the planning and implementation of infrastructure projects, and how these differ from the perceptions of the affected herders. “The results revealed that the herders’ level of participation in the EIAs and the benefits and challenges of participation are perceived differently. Furthermore, the regulatory framework does not adequately ensure that the developer carries social and environmental responsibilities throughout the infrastructure project’s lifecycle, and that regular communication with herders will also be maintained after the EIAs,” explains Landauer. “Ideally, a participatory approach to decision making can improve the means of social learning for all involved parties and aid in the collaborative development of sustainable solutions.” A model for better global cooperation The idea of collaborating to solve otherwise seemingly unsurmountable problems is by no means a new concept when it comes to governance issues in and between Arctic states. According to Lassi Heininen, a researcher with the AFI and professor of Arctic politics at the University of Lapland, there has been constant cooperation on environmental protection, science, and sustainable development between the Arctic nations since shortly after the Cold War ended almost 30 years ago. Heininen explains that the high geopolitical stability is likely due to the common interests of the Arctic states to decrease military tension and increase political stability, which ultimately makes cooperation on environmental protection possible. “The Arctic states have reconstructed their reality of post-Cold War geopolitics by going beyond traditional power (meaning force) and implementing discursive, soft power based on knowledge and dialogue between different stakeholders, as well as the interplay between science, politics, and business. It has been very successful, and could serve as an example, or even a model, for stability-building worldwide,” he says. To this end, AFI researchers have started a systematic analysis and synthesis of existing policies, strategies, and agendas of Arctic states, the Arctic www.iiasa.ac.at14 Options Winter 2018/19