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Circle’s observer countries, other observers, and relevant stakeholders. This comparative study aims to review and analyze the special features of Arctic geopolitics and relevant indicators for common interests, resilient cooperation, and high stability. New challenges and opportunities The Arctic is more impacted by global warming than any other place on earth. One of the factors that significantly contributes to this is black carbon (or soot) emissions resulting from the incomplete combustion of biomass and fossil fuels. When black carbon particles are deposited on snow or ice, they absorb heat from the sun, which accelerates the melting of both terrestrial and sea ice. Although it is clear that reducing black carbon pollution holds some potential for climate change mitigation, especially in the Arctic, in order to take effective action we have to know where it is coming from. Researchers from the Air Quality and Greenhouse Gases Program have been investigating the impacts of black carbon and developing better methods to trace its sources for almost a decade. They have been actively contributing to the “Action on Black Carbon in the Arctic” initiative – an EU project that contributes to the development of collective responses to reduce black carbon emissions in the region. Their work has informed and supported processes aimed at setting clear commitments and targets for reducing black carbon emissions and enhancing international cooperation on black carbon policy in the Arctic. The accelerated rate of sea ice melt is also greatly altering Arctic terrestrial ecosystems and changing both the local landscape and water cycles. During the past summer, Merrit Harlan, a participant of the Young Scientists Summer Program at IIASA, worked with researchers from the Water Program to improve terrestrial modeling of the Arctic. Using a large-scale open-source hydrologic model, Harlan projected changes in the Arctic in terms of the flow of water in streams, rivers, other channels, and permafrost by comparing four general circulation model projections spanning both a historical and future period. The tentative results of her study confirm that the water cycle in the Arctic is intensifying at an unprecedented rate, particularly permafrost melt and the flow of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean. This could have an unpredictable effect on the climate and can contribute to further intensifying the melting of sea ice. Although the rapidly retreating sea ice in the Arctic represents a significant threat, from a strictly economic point of view, it also represents some major opportunities for Arctic states. The Arctic contains a wealth of untapped natural resources, which represent tempting short-term economic benefits. The warmer winters and melting sea ice are extending the periods of ice-free waters in the region. This is improving accessibility to Arctic ports, and reducing the costs of oil and mineral exploration and exploitation, while also opening up faster transport routes connecting the Atlantic and the Pacific. While economic benefits of the opening up of Arctic routes to shipping and extracting the previously untapped resources under the melting ice are clear, there is however also a very real possibility that the environmental factors that caused these opportunities will be further exacerbated by utilizing them. IIASA scientists have identified a need for a comprehensive multi-dimensional assessment of possible futures of shipping in the Arctic, as well as its consequences for the global economy and environment. This was also one of the topics discussed and supported by the community of the Arctic Circle conference in 2018. Employing systems analysis and scientific advice will be vital in helping decision makers to gain better insight into the factors that will influence the decisions they now have to make, and of which the implications will likely be felt for decades. Further info: Emelyanova A (2017). Population projections of the Arctic by levels of education. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-17-022 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14981] Landauer M & Komendantova N (2018). Participatory environmental governance of infrastructure projects affecting reindeer husbandry in the Arctic. Journal of Environmental Management 223: 385-395 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15330] Heininen L (2018). Arctic Geopolitics from Classical to Critical Approach- Importance of Immaterial Factors. Geography, Environment, Sustainability 11 (1): 171-186 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/15228] Klimont Z, Kupiainen K, Heyes C, Purohit P, Cofala J, Rafaj P, Borken-Kleefeld J, & Schöpp W (2017). Global anthropogenic emissions of particulate matter including black carbon. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 17 (14): 8681-8723 [pure.iiasa.ac.at/14755] www.iiasa.ac.at/arctic Anni Reissell: reissell@iiasa.ac.at Lassi Heininen: heininen@iiasa.ac.at www.iiasa.ac.at 15OptionsWinter 2018/19