Seite - 10 - in options, Band winter 2019

Four years after the adoption of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), we are just starting to understand the challenges inherent in achieving sometimes competing policy objectives. One of the thorniest issues is how to achieve universal access to modern energy, while simultaneously addressing the global climate crisis. Even before the adoption of the SDGs, which laid out energy access and climate change action as equal goals within 17 overall objectives, interconnections and potential conflicts were apparent. “Energy use — if the energy supply is fossil based — will result in greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change,” explains IIASA researcher Shonali Pachauri. At the same time, 13% of the global population still lacks access to modern electricity and three billion people rely on wood, coal, charcoal, or animal waste for cooking and heating, which also leads to health problems and contributes to deforestation. The problem gets even more complicated when researchers consider the effects of climate change on future energy needs. “Climate change is already happening, and that means communities have to adapt. In some regions, that will mean a greater need for cooling, while in others it may mean less need for heating,” adds Pachauri. According to a recent assessment from the IIASA Energy Program, the overall effect of climate change will be a greater need for energy on a global scale, dominated by the increased need for cooling, particularly in the Global South. IT’S GETTING HOT IN HERE In their study, IIASA researcher Alessio Mastrucci and colleagues estimated that between 1.8 and 4.1 billion people worldwide are at risk from heat stress because they lack access to residential space cooling, especially in Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. “Bridging this gap by simply providing conventional fans and air conditioning units would require an additional 14% of current global residential electricity consumption,” says Mastrucci. “This calls for broader strategies to bridge the gap.” Mastrucci’s research indicates that these strategies include not only investment in energy efficiency and renewable energy, but also building designs that reduce the need for air conditioning. NO SILVER BULLET Another key message emerging from the growing body of research is that solving the issue requires an understanding of local conditions and contexts. In another study, Pachauri and colleagues in Italy developed a satellite dataset of nighttime lights across Africa, which afforded a detailed view of energy on the continent. Mitigating climate change while increasing energy access may seem to be at odds, but IIASA research is helping policymakers find a path forward. ...the issues of equity and justice, poverty eradication, development, and how those link to climate are now center stage. PALLAV PUROHIT Distribution of people without electricity access over Uganda in 2018. The figure provides a sample representation of the output dataset. Colors represent the density of people without electricity access in each 1km pixel. Administrative boundaries correspond to the first level of the Database of Global Administrative Areas (GADM) definition. 25-100 500-1000100-500 1000-2500 2500+ NOBODY LEFT BEHIND 10 Options Winter 2019/20 www.iiasa.ac.at