Seite - 20 - in options, Band winter 2020

When disasters strike, affected areas usually spend years recovering. In the case of Sub-Saharan Africa, floods and droughts can be so devastating that recovery is impossible before the next disaster strikes. The concept of disaster risk reduction (DRR) aims to mitigate the effects of natural hazards by investing in frameworks to help lessen their effects. In a study done in collaboration with the UN’s Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Junko Mochizuki and her colleagues show that the benefits of investing in DRR in Angola, Tanzania, and Zambia far outweigh the costs. Often, scientists and policymakers group benefits of DRR into three buckets: protecting lives and assets, promoting savings and growth, and promoting social and environmental benefits. The researchers have developed a new model that integrates these buckets of DRR into a single model, allowing them to quantify longer-term growth effects, thereby providing guidance on how much governments should invest in DRR and other infrastructure to achieve improved societal welfare. “DRR is often seen as a costly investment, with benefits that materialize only when disasters strike,” explains Mochizuki, a researcher in the IIASA Water Program. “This leads to a misconception that this investment is wasted if disasters do not occur. Our research clearly shows this is not the case. Our newly developed macroeconomic model demonstrates that investment in DRR delivers numerous co-benefits even when disasters do not occur, because this investment makes economies safer for people to save and invest in more productively.” East Africa is one of the most dynamic economies in the world. In fact, the region’s GDP per capita is expected to see a sevenfold increase by 2050 as the population doubles. With this increase will come a fivefold increase in water demand as climate change continues to produce higher extremes with more frequent floods and droughts. IIASA research is helping to improve water management in the region through innovative water modeling tools and scenario assessments. This research helps policymakers identify the principle needs for effective water management policies. Led by Robert Burtscher and his collaborators, this research shows that population growth adds pressure to already limited resources. In countries like Kenya, Tanzania, and Uganda, water resources are enough to supply basic needs and economic development. However, many countries lack the infrastructure and capacity to access these resources in a sustainable manner. Understanding current and future water needs, as well as how to create access to safe water, explain the researchers, is the first step to solving the problem. “Our analysis clearly shows that population dynamics has the strongest impact on East Africa’s future water security,” explains Burtscher, a liaison expert in the IIASA Water Program. “This requires strong engagement with stakeholders across all sectors that depend on water resources such as agriculture, energy, and municipalities in charge of supplying drinking water to their citizens. The benefits water provides to these and all stakeholders require a joint commitment to sustainable management.” Securing water resources for East Africa through stakeholder engagement A F R I C A Proving the benefits of investing in disaster risk reduction Regional impacts Junko Mochizuki: mochizuk@iiasa.ac.at Robert Burtscher: burtscher@iiasa.ac.at Further info: www.iiasa.ac.at/RISK/DRR www.iiasa.ac.at/RISK/Dynamics By Jeremy Summers 20 Options www.iiasa.ac.atWinter 2020