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In 2017, agriculture contributed to 23.5% of Brazil’s GDP and 40% of its exports. With so much hinging on agriculture in the country, scientists from IIASA and Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research (INPE) set out to measure the impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture. Their task was to understand such impacts on staples like soybeans, corn, and sugar cane. In much of Brazil, production of these crops will not be economically sustainable, the team concluded. According to the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM-Brazil) soybean production in the Cerrado decreases at least 20% compared to a scenario without climate change. In one area, considered the next frontier of Brazilian soybean production, it could be as large as 60% in 2050. These results highlight the importance of considering the impacts of changes in temperature and precipitation when planning for the development of Brazilian agribusiness. It also stresses the necessity of a robust national agricultural policy, including investments in modern technology and management methods to mitigate such changes. “The future of Brazilian agriculture depends on growing productivity quickly enough to avoid (or to adapt to) the most nefarious impacts of climate change,” says IIASA guest researcher, Aline Soterroni. “Our study also shows that the areas in the Amazon and the Cerrado biomes that are being deforested now are likely to be less suitable for agriculture in the future, pointing to the need for policy enforcement to preserve those ecosystems.” Policymakers worldwide are realizing the benefits of renewable energy, but many, particularly in the Global South, are finding it difficult to overcome local opposition despite widespread social impact assessments (SIAs). This opposition is caused by concerns about the social, aesthetic, and environmental impacts of renewable energy projects and can lead to the delay and cancellation of many projects. While Mexico is becoming a global leader in renewable energy, fierce opposition, especially because of land- use rights, has resulted in the re-discussion of existing SIA procedures in terms of their benefits, costs, and risks for local communities. Research conducted by Nain Martinez, a doctoral student at the University of California, Berkeley in collaboration with IIASA colleagues, revealed several issues related to the regulatory and institutional design of SIAs and practices. It concluded that low involvement of local communities and civil society negatively affect the comprehensiveness of SIAs and the implementation of social management plants. “This research was based on extensive dialogue with various stakeholders involved in energy policy development and its implementation in Mexico. The results show there is little agreement on an institutional and regulatory framework for deployment of renewable energy sources such as SIAs,” says IIASA researcher Nadejda Komendantova. “Therefore, participatory governance is needed to develop compromise-oriented policy solutions and to include a variety of views.” The findings aim to inform governments and activists about required reforms to improve the management of social impacts and the relationship between projects and local communities in Mexico and elsewhere. How effective are social impact assessments in Mexico's renewable energy sector? A M E R I C A S The impacts of climate change on Brazilian agriculture Nadejda Komendantova: komendan@iiasa.ac.at Aline Soterroni: soterr@iiasa.ac.at Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16588 Further info: pure.iiasa.ac.at/16518 By Michael Fitzpatrick Regional impacts 21Optionswww.iiasa.ac.at Winter 2020