Seite - 230 - in Otto Bauer (1881–1938) - Thinker and Politician

230 chapter 5 Itbecomesobvious fromtheremarkscitedabove thatBauerpredicted the defeatoftheRussianRevolutionevenbeforeitscommencement.Nonetheless, hedeclared that thevictoryof theOctoberRevolutionwasahistoricalneces- sity. For Bauer, the determination of the revolutionary leaders andwhatever theory theyadhered towerenotdecisive.Whatcountedwerechanges in the balance of class forces (the working class gained strength after the Febru- aryRevolution)andhowthesocio-political conditionsdiffered fromthose in highly developed countries (i.e. how towin the economically exploited, cul- turallybackwardandpoliticallyunenlightenedpeasantryforsocialism,among other issues).142Bauerwas inclinedtobelievethat theallianceofworkersand peasantshadbeenenforcedprimarilybyeconomic factorsandwas therefore ephemeral. It is imperative toremember thathedissociatedhimself fromthe markedly nullifying evaluation emanating from the right wing of the party aroundRenner. Bauer regarded the processes occurring in Russia as crucial for the victory of socialism in Europe and prophetically predicted that they wouldinspiretherevolutionaryspiritandwillof theWesternEuropeanwork- ingclass. At thetime,Bauer’spraise for theaccomplishmentsof theRussianRevolu- tiondidnotyetamounttorevisinghispositiononthefateofbuildingsocialism inRussia.Inthisperiod,heheldfasttohisconvictionthatbuildingsocialismin Russiawasdoomedtofailureifnotaidedbytheworldrevolution–inthis, the Bolsheviksagreedwithhim.Secondly,hedidnotbelievethatseizingpowerand introducingaproletariandictatorshipwasanywhereclosetothefinalgoal.He considered it apoliticalmisjudgementof far-reaching consequences, includ- ing the acute danger of civil war and economic breakdown, for theworking classtoseizepowerinacountrywhereobjectiveconditionswereinsufficiently ripe–hisprognosiswouldsoonbevalidated.BauerblamedboththeBolshev- iks and theMensheviks for the course of events. He accused the Bolsheviks of revolutionary voluntarism and transgressing the boundaries of bourgeois revolution.Conversely,hecriticisedtheMensheviksforcollaboratingwiththe bourgeoisie, supporting the imperialistwar, and insufficiently taking theeco- nomiclifeofworkersandpeasants intoaccount. Intruth,Bauerexpectedthat after theseizureofpower,aconstitutionalassemblyandtheestablishmentof ademocratic governmentwould follow.When the constituent assemblywas dissolvedinearly 1918,heviewedthisasanearlysignofdefeat for theRussian experiment,whichhewouldgoontoanticipateformanyyears.Hecitedseveral reasonsinsupportforhis1917–20prognosisconcerningthedefeatoftheOcto- 142 SeeBauer1976c,pp.274–5.