Seite - 163 - in Short-Term Load Forecasting by Artificial Intelligent Technologies

Energies2018,11, 2038 whereT is thenumberof leaves in the treewith leafweightsw = (w1,w2, . . . ,wT).Using thesecond orderTaylorexpansion, (3) canbesimplifiedto: L˜(t) = n ∑ i= 1 [ gi ft(xi)+ 1 2 hi f2t (xi) ] +γT+ 1 2 λ T ∑ j= 1 w2j (4) wheregi = ∂yˆ(t−1) l (yi, yˆ (t−1))andhi = ∂2yˆ(t−1) l (yi, yˆ (t−1)). Denotingby Ij = {i|q(xi) = j} the instancesetof leaf j,wecanrewrite (4), as follows: L˜(t) = T ∑ j= 1 ⎡⎣⎛⎝∑ i∈Ij gi ⎞⎠wj+ 12 ⎛⎝∑ i∈Ij hi+λ ⎞⎠w2j ⎤⎦+γT (5) Therefore, theoptimalweight isgivenby: w∗j = − ∑i∈Ij gi ∑i∈Ij hi+λ (6) andthecorrespondingoptimalobjectiveby: L˜(t)(q) = −1 2 T ∑ j= 1 ( ∑i∈Ij gi )2 ∑i∈Ij hi+λ + γT (7) whereq represents theoptimal treestructurewithT leavesandleafweightsw∗ = ( w∗1,w ∗ 2, . . . ,w ∗ T ) . Duetothe impossibilityofenumeratingall thepossible treestructuresq, agreedyalgorithmisused (itstartswithasingle leafandaddsbranches iteratively).Denotingby ILand IR the instancesetsof left andrightnodesafter thesplit, I = IL∪ IR, thereductionintheobjectiveafter thesplit isgivenby: Lsplit = 12 ⎡⎢⎣ ( ∑i∈IL gi )2 ∑i∈IL hi+λ + ( ∑i∈IR gi )2 ∑i∈IR hi+λ − (∑i∈I gi) 2 ∑i∈I hi+λ ⎤⎥⎦−γ (8) Thetaskofsearchingthebestsplithasbeendevelopedintwoscenarios: anexactgreedyalgorithm (itenumeratesall thepossiblesplitsonall the features,which iscomputationaldemanding)andan approximategreedyalgorithmforbigdatasets, see [37] formoredetails. Themain difference between random forest and boosting is that the former builds the base learners independently throughbootstrapsamplingonthetrainingdataset,while the latterobtains themsequentially focusingontheerrorsof theprevious iterationandusinggradientdescentmethods. Somestrengthsof theXGBoost implementationcomparingtoothermethodsare: • Anexactgreedyalgorithmisavailable. • Approximateglobalandapproximate localalgorithmsareavailable forbigdatasets. • Itperformsparallel learning. Besides, aneffectivecache-awareblockstructure isavailable for out-of-core tree learning. • It isefficient incaseofsparse inputdata (includingthepresenceofmissingvalues). The extremegradient boostingmethod (XGBoost) has been implemented bymeans of theR package“xgboost”, see [38]. Apart fromitshighlycomputationalefficiency, theXGBoostoffersagreatflexibility,but it requires settingupmore thanthe tenparameters thatcouldnotbe learnedfromthedata. Taking intoaccount thatRpackage“xgboost”doesnothaveanyhyperparameter tuning, theparameter tuningcanbe 163